Desperate for homes after the Pac-12 implosion, Stanford and Cal scramble for invitations from ACC, Big Ten

Stanford and Cal began competing in college sports over a century ago. Membership in a conference based thousands of miles away was unthinkable for 99 percent of their athletic careers. It’s now critical.

The Cardinal and Bears are desperately seeking invitations to either the ACC or the Big Ten following the implosion of their longtime home, the Pac-12, which lost five schools late last week and has

If neither of those leagues provides a lifeboat, it appears that the Bay Area schools have three options:

— They could band together with Washington State and Oregon State to [rebuild the Pac-12].via (https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/08/07/pac-12-collapse-our-five-step-guide-to-rebuilding-the-conference-around-the-four-schools-left-behind/).

— They could plan a merger with the Mountain West.

— In football, they could compete as Independents while placing their other teams in the Mountain West or West Coast Conferences.

None of those options are as appealing to first-class academic institutions that have won hundreds of NCAA championships and produced iconic athletes across multiple sports as joining conferences based in Rosemont, Ill. (Big Ten) or Charlotte, N.C. (ACC).

However, college sports changed forever on June 30, 2022, when the Los Angeles schools accepted Big Ten invitations, redefining conference alignment, and making UCLA vs. Rutgers a league game.

The departure of the Bruins and Trojans triggered a year-long existential crisis for the Pac-12, which culminated Friday when Oregon and Washington joined the Big Ten, Arizona, ASU, and Utah joined the Big 12, and a 108-year-old pillar of college sports was reduced to ash.

The conference changes will not take effect until next summer, but the four schools that have been left out of the Pac-12 are scrambling to find new homes.

The ACC presidents are discussing the benefits of a western arm, the University of California regents are meeting (Tuesday morning) to discuss Cal’s future, and Stanford is relying on its influential alumni base and powerful allies.

Resolution may first come from the ACC, where expansion to the West Coast appears to benefit no one, with the possible exception of its media partner, ESPN.

With Cal and Stanford on board, the network would have access to more football games in the Pacific Time Zone, particularly during the 7:30 p.m. (PT) broadcast window.

Additionally, the Bay Area media market would generate subscribers for ESPN’s ACC Network. Would it result in a significant increase in revenue for the 14 current members? That is highly unlikely.

Cal and Stanford, as well as USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, make far more sense as Big Ten members.

A six-team western division would result in a heavy load of regional conference games, reducing the number of cross-country trips for Olympic athletes. It would also reduce travel to the West Coast for the Big Ten’s 14 current members.

The additions of Stanford and Cal would provide the Big Ten with access to the Bay Area tech scene and its massive alumni base in the region, which is always a consideration for university presidents.

Until last summer, the prospect of Stanford and Cal joining the Big Ten made no sense. It now makes far too much sense.

But only one vote counts: Will Fox, the Big Ten’s media overlord — and the puppet master behind the moves at USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington — agree to pay for it?

The Big Ten will not approve any expansion that would deplete their media revenue stream. Fox would have to put up the money for Stanford and Cal.

How much is it?

The conference’s broadcast contract is expected to pay USC, UCLA, and the 14 remaining Big Ten members an average of $65 million per year (approximately).

Washington and Oregon agreed to participate in the conference at a lower share and will receive approximately $32.5 million per year. Over the course of the Big Ten’s media contract cycle, the Pacific Northwest powers will receive more than $375 million.

Entry into the Big Ten would result in significantly reduced revenue shares for Stanford and Cal, possibly as low as 25% for the majority of the contract term.

But does Fox see enough value in the Stanford and Cal football brands, as well as the Bay Area media market, to justify another $200 million (or more) in investment?

The second challenge is just as daunting: what happens when the Big Ten’s broadcast contract expires in 2030? We doubt that Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State would agree to split that windfall equally with the Bay Area duo.

Would the Cardinals and Bears agree now to accept lower revenue splits into the 2030s?

If that is their only way into the Big Ten and the ACC door is closed, there is no choice. They sign the contract, exhale a sigh of relief, and begin booking flights to Bloomington and Iowa City.