What’s next for the Mountain West after Pac-12 implodes: Expansion, contraction or both?

Gloria Nevarez took over the Mountain West on January 1st and spent the next six months developing a strategic plan to propel the conference into the next era of college sports. Later this month, she plans to present the blueprint to her membership.

“We went broad and deep,” Nevarez recently stated. “We brought in someone to assist us with the process. We received feedback from… over 10,000 survey responses.”

Our best guess is that her presentation has changed.

The Pac-12’s demise late last week will have a significant impact on the Mountain West’s future on multiple fronts. The conference’s membership may grow or shrink, but it is unlikely to remain static by the end of the decade.

If the Pac-12’s remaining schools (Stanford, Cal, Washington State, and Oregon State) band together, they may be able to raid the Mountain West and take the top football schools.

If Stanford and Cal are able to join the ACC or Big Ten — a decision could be made this week — WSU and OSU are expected to join the Mountain West.

One possibility appears unlikely: Stanford and Cal joining the Mountain West in a traditional merger to form a 16-team league.

Nevarez has declined to comment on the Pac-12’s demise, which saw the Pac-12 lose Washington and Oregon to the Big Ten and Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah to the Big 12 in a dramatic 12-hour span Friday that forever altered the college sports landscape.

The conference is very important to her. She grew up in the Bay Area, has a law degree from Cal, and worked on the Pac-12’s executive team for several years under former commissioner Larry Scott.

And she is well aware that, as vulnerable as it appears, the Pac-12 has the potential to poach. If the conference changes its mind, it could go after San Diego State, Fresno State, and Boise State.

“As long as you’re in the middle of the ecosystem… the top of your (conference) is always going to be aspirational, and we have policies in place to deal with that,” Nevarez said on ‘[Canzano and Wilner: The Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/57-gloria-nevarez-mountain-west-conference-commissioner/id1636790627?i=1000

“The policies are not intended to completely prevent schools from leaving, but rather to protect the league when and if they do.” (The policies) include a sufficient financial exit fee to allow us to either backfill with new members or offset any negative impact on our media contracts.”

Any Mountain West school wishing to join the Pac-12 for the 2024 season would be required to pay approximately $34 million in departure fees. That cost is significant, to be sure, but the remaining Pac-12 schools may be able to mitigate the damage if they withhold revenue from the eight departing members. (That situation is still unresolved.)

The exit fee for joining the Pac-12 in time for the 2025 season has been reduced to $17 million, which is a reasonable sum for any “aspirational” Mountain West school.

And what if her league is taken?

Nevarez works with a six-person subcommittee (three presidents and three athletic directors) to evaluate membership options on a regular basis.

“We are scrubbing the entire environment for potential adds: folks who might shake loose in other realignment that we could be aggressive about inviting and courting, or schools that have a lot of upward trajectory and potential,” she said.

Of course, Nevarez did not name names. Other Group of Five leagues or the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) could provide potential additions.

The Mountain West will be proactive, whether it welcomes Washington State and Oregon State in 2024 or seeks to replace schools that move to the rebuilt Pac-12 in 2025.

“We have to take the realignment model that works, that aggressive mentality,” said a conference source, “and get people to come join us.”

In realignment, aggressive conferences thrive while passive leagues perish.

The Big 12 was on the verge of collapse in the summer of 2021. Texas and Oklahoma announced their departures from the Pac-12, leaving the remaining schools desperate for a lifeboat from the Pac-12 that never arrived. The Pac-12 presidents came to the conclusion that none of the Big 12 schools added enough value (financial or competitive) to merit invitations.

The Big 12 saw strength in numbers after being given a second chance and quickly added Brigham Young, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF. It is now stable and thriving, whereas the Pac-12 has been decimated.

The Mountain West has learned its lesson and is ready to strike.

“We are constantly looking at who might fit the model that if we lost more than one school in this round, that we could add to fill out the family,” Nevarez said.

Would the conference swoop into the Southern Plains and seize UTSA and North Texas?

Could it turn east and take Memphis?

Are FCS options being considered, including powerhouse North Dakota State?

Only two teams would be a no-brainer for the Mountain West: Oregon State and Washington State.

If Stanford and Cal do not stay to rebuild the Pac-4, expect the Cougars and Beavers to be invited to the MW at the earliest possible opportunity.