Projecting the (Karlsson-less) Sharks’ 23-man roster: Better team or better lottery odds?
Since the end of last season, the San Jose Sharks have added seven new forwards with NHL experience. They also changed the look of their defense and did not re-sign the goalie who had appeared in 91 games over the previous two years.
So, are they any better, or have they improved their chances of winning the draft lottery next year?
Given the uncertainty on defense and in net, the Sharks are a long shot to make the 2024 playoffs. The forward group is deeper and more dynamic than it was in 2022-23, though it may be a few years before another prolific goal-scorer like Timo Meier joins the team.
Right now, Sharks general manager Mike Grier’s only expectation for his team is to compete hard and build on the culture he believes they began to establish last season, despite finishing with a 22-44-16 record for 60 points — fourth-fewest in the NHL — and a 9.5 percent chance of winning the draft lottery.
As most Sharks fans learned a few months ago, the team with the worst record has a 25.5 percent chance of winning the lottery.
“My expectation for the group is the same as it’s always been,” Grier said after trading Erik Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Sunday. “(Coach David Quinn) wants to win, (owner) Hasso (Plattner wants to win, I want to win, and the players want to win,” Quinn said.
“So I think the expectation is that these guys come in, compete hard, play hard every day, and try to win hockey games, and we’ll see what happens.”
Here’s a look at who might make the Sharks’ 23-man roster when the season kicks off on Oct. 12.
FORWARD
LOCKS (12): Alexander Barabanov, Anthony Duclair, Mikael Granlund, Tomas Hertl, Mike Hoffman, Kevin Labanc, Oskar Lindblom, Luke Kunin, Nico Sturm, Filip Zadina, Fabian Zetterlund
IN THE MIX (6): Thomas Bordeleau, Ryan Carpenter, William Eklund, Jacob Peterson, Adam Raska, and Givani Smith
LONGSHOTS (5): Danil Gushchin, ****Tristen Robins, Scott Sabourin, Nathan Todd, and Ozzy Wiesblatt
ANALYSIS: Despite the additions, Grier stated that players on entry-level contracts still have a chance to make the team out of camp. They only need to beat out a veteran player to force the front office’s hand.
Even if San Jose keeps 14 forwards for the start of the regular season, that won’t be easy. Duclair, Granlund, Hoffman, and Zadina join holdovers Barabanov, Couture, Hertl, Kunin, and Sturm in a crowded top nine. Eklund and Bordeleau would gladly take fourth-line roles to stay in the NHL, but Zetterlund, Lindblom, Peterson, Carpenter, and Smith are also in the running.
Beyond that, there are still unanswered questions. Where does Labanc fit in, and who will play fourth-line center for the Sharks?
Last season, Labanc scored 33 points in 72 games. He is capable of playing top-six minutes when at his best. However, there were times last season and earlier in his career when he was assigned to the fourth line or sat out entirely. Labanc’s contract carries a $4.725 million hard-to-trade cap hit, and the Sharks would only receive $1.15 million in cap relief if he were sent down. Such an unconventional move would appear unlikely.
Carpenter has previously played as a fourth-line center in the NHL and may be better suited for that role right now than the talented Bordeleau, though the Michigan product will have plenty of opportunities to showcase himself in exhibition games. There’s also a chance Granlund moves to the third line and Sturm to the fourth, freeing up a top-nine spot.
If everyone is healthy, we believe the 12 locks listed above, plus Eklund and Peterson, will make the team, while Bordeleau, Raska, Carpenter, and Smith will begin the season in the AHL.
DEFENSEMEN
LOCKS (7): Matthew Benning, Kyle Burroughs, Mario Ferraro, Nikolai Knyzhov, Jan Rutta, Radim Simek, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic
IN THE MIX(4) : Jacob MacDonald, Henry Thrun, Nick Cicek, and Leon Gawanke
LONGSHOTS: Shakir Mukhamadullin, Nikita Okhotiuk, and Valtteri Pulli
ANALYSIS: Grier’s stance on rookies potentially pushing out veterans applies equally to defensemen, but with only seven roster spots likely available, which bubble player can push out which veteran?
While Mukhamadullin, Okhotiuk, and Pulli will most likely need more time in the AHL, Thrun appears to be more NHL-ready. Can he take over for Simek, who has had trouble staying healthy in the past? There is also some doubt as to whether Rutta, who had core muscle surgery in April, will be fully recovered in time for the start of training camp, potentially opening the door for someone else.
Burroughs is among a group of defensemen who aren’t offensive enough to replace Karlsson, but he brings something to the back end that hasn’t been seen since Jacob Middleton was traded in March 2022.
The Sharks are eager to see what a healthy Knyzhov can accomplish after a full offseason of preparation. Ferraro is expected to play a lot of minutes this season after an inconsistent 2022-23 season in which he may have tried to do too much at times. With Karlsson gone, Grier says it’s especially important for guys to stick to their DNA.
“Sometimes players can fall into that trap where they try to do too much and change their game,” Grier explained, “and it becomes something that is not beneficial to them or the team.”
If every defenseman listed as a lock is healthy and available, the Sharks should start Thrun in the AHL. However, injuries happen, and San Jose used 11 defensemen last season, so Thrun and possibly other young defensemen will see action with the big club at some point.
GOALIES
LOCKS (2): Mackenzie Blackwood and Kaapo Kahkonen are the two locks.
LONGSHOTS (3): Eetu Makiniemi, Magnus Chrona, and Georgi Romanov
ANALYSIS: Blackwood replaces James Reimer, who went 31-38-18 in San Jose over the last two seasons, and will form the Sharks’ goalie tandem with Kahkonen, assuming both remain healthy. Can one team edge out the other during training camp and preseason games to establish a clear No. 1? Like last season, the workload is likely to be distributed fairly evenly.
However, unlike last season, the Sharks do not have a safety net in the form of Aaron Dell to protect one of their young goalies if Blackwood or Kahkonen are injured. Makiniemi is expected to be the Barracuda’s No. 1 goaltender, and logic suggests he’ll be called up to the NHL if anything happens to the top two netminders.
Training camp, as well as the previous rookie camp in Las Vegas, could help determine whether Chrona or Romanov stay with the Barracuda in San Jose and who goes to the ECHL team in Wichita.
