Ukraine’s strikes on Russian ammo depots show how Western weapon restrictions are protecting Russia’s rear, war experts say

An ammunition depot in Tikhoretsk, Russia, on Sunday.

Ukraine’s recent strikes on ammunition depots inside Russia show how much Russia benefits from the “sanctuary” provided by the West, war experts have said.

The Institute for the Study of War made the assessment in an update on Tuesday, citing satellite imagery.

It said before-and-after satellite images captured by Maxar Technologies showed the “dramatic” damage that Ukrainian strikes had caused to three Russian ammunition depots in September.

The ISW pointed to imagery of damage to the Oktyabrsky and Toropets depots in Russia’s Tver region and the Tikhoretsk depot in Krasnodar Krai.

A satellite image showing the Tikhoretsk ammunition depot on September 14 and on September 22, after it was struck.

It said the images not only showed the devastation of dozens of ammunition storage facilities but also train carriages that were probably used to transfer munitions and large numbers of rocket canisters and other material that had been “haphazardly left in the open.”

The ISW said the absence of operational security in Russia’s rear supply depots showed how Western restrictions barring Ukraine from firing Western-supplied weapons into Russia had given Russian command the “flexibility” to avoid protecting its rear.

“This flexibility has granted Russia the ability to optimize large rear staging facilities to marshal massed materiel to Ukraine at scale,” it said.

Ukraine has been barred from using its arsenal of Western-provided long-range missiles to go after strategic targets inside Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly asked the US and its other allies to lift those restrictions.

He told CNN on Friday that lifting the restrictions was a “key” part of the victory plan he’d present to US officials this week and that he was hopeful his case would be heard.

In an interview with Good Morning America this week, Zelenskyy said Putin would continue “to destroy us, to kill people, to kill children” if Ukraine was denied permission to use Western weapons on targets inside Russia.

The Pentagon has explained the US decision not to allow such strikes by saying that 90% of Russian aircraft launching glide bombs are out of range of Ukraine’s ATACMS, that it has a limited number of ATACMS missiles, and also that such a decision could escalate the conflict.

But pressure is growing to let Ukraine use the weapons in Russia.

Last month, Josep Borrell, the European Union’s chief of foreign policy, said EU countries should lift restrictions on the use of weaponry against Russian military targets “in accordance with international law.”

And in a resolution adopted Thursday, the European Parliament called on EU countries to lift restrictions preventing Ukraine from using Western weapons systems against “legitimate” military targets inside Russia.

Denmark, Sweden, and Finland have publicly said Ukraine can use their weapons to strike deep inside Russia, and on Monday, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told Bloomberg that Western allies should end discussions around Russia’s “red lines” and allow Ukraine to strike within Russia without restrictions.

“We have to be able to give the right answer,” she said, “and it has to be powerful.”