Iran is threatening to break its fragile truce with Saudi Arabia: reports
Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad bin Salman al-Saud meets Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Riyadh in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in October, 2024.
The fragile truce between longtime regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia could unravel if Gulf states allow Israel to use their airspace to strike Iran.
Iranian sources told Reuters that when the country’s Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi recently traveled to Riyadh, he warned Saudi officials that Iran would respond if it allowed Israel to use its airspace for attacks on the Islamic Republic.
He reportedly told the officials that Iranian-backed militias in Iraq or the Houthi militia in Yemen could be deployed against Saudi Arabia.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal court, told Reuters: “The Iranians have stated: ‘If the Gulf states open up their airspace to Israel, that would be an act of war.'”
Separately The Wall Street Journal, citing Arab officials, reported that Iran has warned through covert channels that it could target Gulf states and US allies in the Middle East more broadly if their territories or airspace is used by Israel to target Iran.
It named Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, all of which host US military bases, as countries Iran has threatened with reprisals.
The reports come at a time when tensions are rapidly escalating in the region.
Israel has, in recent weeks, escalated attacks on the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, and Iran retaliated by launching a missile attack on Israel on October 1.
Israeli leaders have pledged that they will respond to the Iranian attack, with some, including former Prime Minister Naftali Bennet, calling for Israel to target Iran’s nuclear program. Other options include an attack on Iran’s oil facilities.
Such an attack could trigger an Iranian strike on Gulf states that it sees as having enabled the attack, as well as on Israeli civilian infrastructure.
Arab sources told Reuters that they’d lobbied the US to prevent Israel from striking Iranian oil facilities, and the outlet reported that an Israeli attack using their air space was off the table.
Israel could still strike Iran using routes over Syria or Iraq, but the cooperation of US forces in Gulf states is problematic.
Any attack on Saudi oil facilities could send prices sharply higher. The kingdom is the world’s biggest crude exporter.
An Iranian attack would likely upend the truce brokered between Iran and Saudi Arabia by China in 2023 that saw the longtime rivals establish diplomatic contacts.
For decades, the states had waged a proxy war against each other, most recently in Yemen where Iran backed Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia waged a campaign in support of government forces in the country’s civil war.
Amid the hostilities, Iran in 2019 orchestrated strikes on Saudi oil facilities in the east of the country.
Saudi Arabia and Gulf states had formed a loosely aligned bloc, backed by the US, to contain Iranian regional influence, an arrangement the US has sought to strengthen in recent years.
Among the key agreements underlying the truce was a deal by Iran to stop backing Houthi militants in attacks on Saudi Arabia, while the Saudis agreed to stop backing Sunni militants in Iran.
The truce, say analysts, is in part a reflection of Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman’s desire to stabilize the region and to transform the Saudi economy as part of his Vision 2030 project.
Despite the flare-up of violence between Israel and Iran in the wake of the October 7, 2023, terror attacks by Iran-sponsored militia Hamas, the truce between Saudi Arabia and Iran has largely held.
This is despite reports that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states may’ve helped Israel and its allies shoot down Iranian missiles in a previous attack targeting Israel in April.
In a recent essay for the European Council for Foreign Relations, analysts stressed that diplomatic engagement between Iran and Saudi Arabia could be essential to resolving flaring regional tensions.
“While it hasn’t led to conflict resolution, this detente has helped contain regional escalation,” they noted.
Any attack on Saudi oil facilities could send prices sharply higher. The kingdom is the world’s biggest crude exporter and plays a significant role as the de facto leader of
Opec, the cartel of oil-producing nations.
The price of Brent crude is up 12% over the past month to just under $79 a barrel on Friday. However, it remains considerably lower than the spike that followed Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 when prices rose above $110 a barrel.
