Why bitcoin has 12% upside in the weeks before the election, Standard Chartered says

Bitcoin bulls have been searching for another all-time high for more than six months. It might finally come in the next few weeks, Standard Chartered says.

In new research, head of digital asset research Geoff Kendrick estimated that the token could hit $73,800 before November’s US presidential election, a 12% gain from current levels.

To back this, Kendrick cited a shifting pattern in how bitcoin has traded against MicroStrategy, a firm best known for accumulating massive amounts of the token — a stockpile that recent reached 252,000 bitcoins.

As the chart below shows, after trading relatively in lockstep with bitcoin throughout 2024, MicroStrategy has broken out. Kendrick says the two fundamental factors responsible for that premium are likely to drive bitcoin higher, closing the gap over time.

The first of those factors is news from last month that BNY Mellon was exempted from SAB 121, an unpopular legislation that forces dealers to list crypto on their balance sheets. Easing regulation is often a cited tailwind for bitcoin.

Second, SAB 121 exemptions go hand-in-hand with MicroStrategy’s announced plan to become a “bitcoin bank,” offering bitcoin capital market instruments down the road. Kendrick expects a future exemption could allow the firm to earn yield by lending out bitcoin.

“The link between these two for me is that as the broader digital asset ecosystem becomes more legitimate/accessible, MSTR’s multiple goes up,” Kendrick said.

In Kendrick’s mind, the outcome of the presidential election is secondary to these bullish forces, with both Trump and Harris victories boding well for the token.

“As we approach the US election … the broader digital asset ecosystem is indeed becoming more likely to become mainstream,” he wrote.

Kendrick has previously expressed that both candidates should boost the asset long-term, though Kendrick says a Donald Trump presidency would be the more bullish of the two outcomes. If the Republican candidate returns to the White House, he estimates that bitcoin could surge as high as $125,000 by the end of 2024.