Democratic senators are crushing their GOP opponents in the money race. They’re still likely to lose their majority.

Sen. Jon Tester more than tripled his GOP opponent’s most recent fundraising haul. Polling still shows him losing.

Ahead of the closing stretch of the 2024 campaign, Democratic incumbents and candidates in the country’s nine competitive Senate races have been crushing their GOP opponents in fundraising, raising four times as much money in a handful of cases.

But Democrats still appear likely to lose their current 51-vote majority, no matter who wins the presidential election. That means that if elected, Vice President Kamala Harris would be unable to enact much of her proposed domestic agenda, particularly on abortion or the economy.

The biggest reason, simply put, is that Democrats are dealing with a really tough map this year.

Roughly a third of the country’s 100 senators are up for reelection every two years, and each cycle brings different opportunities for each party. While 2022 and 2020 provided solid pick-up opportunities for Democrats, they’re almost entirely on defense this year, with very few openings to grow their majority and several opportunities for Republicans to defeat Democrats.

Super PAC spending — including from the crypto industry — as well as ultrawealthy GOP candidates funding their own campaigns, have allowed Republicans to make up some of their money gap.

With Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement, Republicans are all but guaranteed to pick up a Senate seat in deep-red West Virginia, which would bring them to 50 seats if they don’t suffer any losses.

If former President Donald Trump wins, they already have a hypothetical majority, with a Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate. If Harris wins, Republicans only need to win one more seat to have the majority — and they’ve already got one good shot at that in Montana.

In almost every competitive Senate race, Democrats have outraised Republicans in recent months

Money certainly isn’t everything in politics, but it helps to have more of it than your opponent, especially when you’re on defense.

From the arid plains of Montana, to the scorching deserts of Arizona and Nevada, all the way up to the Great Lakes region, Democratic candidates outraised their opponents multiple times over during the most recent fundraising period, which encompassed July 1 through September 30.

In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown outraised his opponent nearly five-fold, bringing in $30.7 million while Republican candidate Bernie Moreno raised just $6.5 million. In the race for Michigan’s open Senate seat, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin raised four times as much as her opponent, bringing in roughly $16.7 million while former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers raised nearly $4.2 million. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego raised $20.7 million to Republican Kari Lake’s $8.6 million, more than doubling her haul.

In the country’s nine most competitive races, Democratic candidates raised an average of 2.8 times more than Republican candidates.

When it comes to cash on hand — the amount of money that candidates had remaining in their bank accounts with roughly a month to go before the election — Democrats and Republicans were running roughly even.

Most candidates were within a few million dollars of their opponents, and in Texas — Democrats’ best pick-up opportunity this cycle — Sen. Ted Cruz had more than $10 million more in cash on hand than his Democratic opponent, Rep. Colin Allred.

But by raising more money, Democratic candidates have also been able to spend more money than their opponents, allowing them to blanket the airwaves and establish the necessary campaign infrastructure to carry them through the final month.

“Senate Democrats’ powerful grassroots fundraising is the latest demonstration of why Democrats are in the strongest possible position to defend our majority,” said Tommy Garcia, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “We have better candidates, stronger campaigns and our candidates are attracting support from voters of every political persuasion.”

“Democrats will always have more money than us thanks to the liberal billionaire elites who prop up their campaigns but Republican Senate candidates are getting the message out with the resources we have,” said Philip Letsou, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Races are tightening on Democrats everywhere and we feel good headed into the home stretch.”

As of now, Democratic candidates have continued to lead in polling in every state where they’re on defense — except for Montana.

Democrats have a problem in Big Sky Country

To understand why money can’t buy Democrats the Senate, look no further than Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is fighting for his political life in a state that former President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2016 and 2020.

Tester crushed his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy, in fundraising from July through September. The long-serving Montana Democrat raised $32.1 million — the most of any Senate candidate in the country during that period — while Sheehy raised $9.7 million.

Tim Sheehy, the GOP Senate nominee in Montana, may be benefiting from the decline of “ticket-splitting.”

But since August, poll after poll has shown Tester trailing Sheehy by several points, a result not seen before in the senator’s previous reelection bids in 2012 and 2018.

The culprit may be the ongoing decline in “ticket-splitting,” a phenomenon where citizens vote for candidates from different political parties during the same election. For example, a Montanan may vote for Tester in the Senate race, but choose Trump in the presidential race.

This used to be more common, and there used to be more instances of Democrats representing conservative states and Republicans representing blue states. But as polarization and partisan sorting have intensified over the last several election cycles, a growing share of the electorate is simply voting for one party all the way down the ballot.

Still, Tester could pull it out, and there are signs that some Trump voters are still planning to back the Democratic senator: Tester consistently polls well ahead of Harris in Montana.

Super PACs — and rich candidates funding their own campaigns — have helped the GOP make up some of the gap

There’s one competitive Senate race where the Republican slightly outraised the Democrat — Wisconsin, where Eric Hovde brought in $11.2 million to Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s $11 million.

But that was only possible because Hovde, a wealthy businessman, poured $7 million of his own money into his campaign in August and September.

Eric Hovde, the GOP Senate nominee in Wisconsin, has poured millions into his own campaign.

It’s part of a broader strategy that Republicans have employed during this election cycle, relying at times on their own candidates’ wealth to fund their campaigns.

In Pennsylvania, Republican candidate Dave McCormick has loaned his campaign nearly $4.3 million to his campaign since the race began. Sheehy and Moreno have also contributed millions to their campaigns.

There’s also “outside spending” — money spent by groups on behalf of each candidate that aren’t officially connected to either campaign.

Both Democrats and Republicans have super PACs for Senate races, and they’re running roughly even in fundraising. Republicans’ “Senate Leadership Fund” raised $115.7 million in the most recent period, while Democrats’ “Senate Majority PAC” raised $119 million.

That sort of spending can make a big difference in key races, with Ohio being a key example. In addition to the super PAC spending from Democratic and Republican groups, the Buckeye State has also seen a deluge of spending from “Defend American Jobs,” a super PAC with ties to the cryptocurrency industry.

Brown, the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, has been a crypto critic, and the pro-crypto group has now spent upwards of $40 million on ads promoting Moreno, his GOP opponent.

Polling has so far broadly shown Brown leading Moreno, a striking result given that, like Montana, Trump handily won the state twice.

But the polls have tightened in recent weeks, and if Moreno defeats Brown, Democrats will have virtually no chance of retaining the majority — and crypto money will have played a key role.