‘Don’t California my Montana’: Pandemic population boom in rural hotspots sparks resentment
Population in non-metro counties rose for second year in 2022
Rural America is thriving, but the population growth that is boosting local economies is also straining everything from schools to housing and roads.
The influx, which began during the pandemic, has continued even after the Covid restrictions were lifted. Following years of declines, the most recent government data released just last month predicts a second year of increases in 2022.
House prices in the top ten rural counties with the highest population growth have risen by more than 40% in the last three years, causing resentment. Schools are overcrowded, and the shift is having an effect on farmland prices.
“There’s a lot of resentment,” said Maggie Doherty, a Flathead County, Montana-based writer and columnist. “There are bumper stickers that say things like ‘Montana’s full’ or ‘Don’t California my Montana.'”
In 2021, the rural population outgrew the urban population for the first time in three decades, and the rural population expanded again last year. However, growth was not evenly distributed, with the top ten counties with the highest population gains increasing by an average of 5%, according to Census data. This is higher than the 0.4% national average.
Tech-savvy Californians who work from home are fleeing to more affordable states, while retirees and nature enthusiasts are flocking to places like Montana. Many people from the Midwest have now relocated to the Sunbelt. And, if house prices are any indication, the trend is expected to continue this year.
The influx of new residents is widening political divides in some areas of an already polarized country. The migration has the potential to alter voting patterns in both the places where people are leaving and where they are going, adding an element of unpredictability to battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina in the 2024 presidential election.
Finding affordable housing in Jackson County, Georgia, is becoming increasingly difficult. According to real estate firm Zillow, prices in the first half of 2023 increased by 50% over the previous three years. Because of its proximity to Atlanta, the county attracted hybrid workers.
“There’s been a lot of battles politically over building and where to build,” said Pete Fuller, who lives in Jackson County and is the Democratic Party’s chairman. “There are organized groups that oppose the construction of affordable housing.”
Rents have also risen. According to Zillow data, rents in Harnett and Moore counties in North Carolina, Gallatin County in Montana, and Iron County in Utah have all increased by 13% to 24% in the last two years.
“Rent is completely through the roof,” said Wendy Cerne, who lives in Tennessee near Cookeville. “There are a lot of new people who have moved into the region, and I’ve seen it firsthand.”
According to Bloomberg calculations based on Census data and a US Department of Agriculture methodology, the rural population increased by 0.3%, or 241,300 people, in the two years through mid-2022. Over the last two years, some of the fastest-growing rural counties have seen more deaths than births, implying that the growth is entirely due to new residents.
The ten counties with the greatest growth were typically located near a major city. According to FCC data, their broadband coverage was also 94%, significantly higher than the national average of 79% for non-metro areas.
Farmland Values
It’s not just rural home prices that are rising. Farmland prices, which were already at an all-time high due to rising commodity prices and people buying plots as a hedge against inflation, rose further.
“Anything that helps broaden and deepen what I would call the opportunity set for off-farm income is good for producers, which is a good underpinning for land prices,” said Tom Halverson, CEO of CoBank ACB, a major rural lender.
“The states in the South and East have been some of the biggest beneficiaries of this population movement,” he explained. “They are also the parts of this country’s agricultural production complex that are most reliant on off-farm income.” So there’s an intriguing correlation dynamic going on.”
Newcomers bring economic benefits to rural America as well. Moore County, North Carolina’s golf courses and healthcare facilities are the primary reasons for its population growth, particularly among retirees, according to Natalie Hawkins, who leads her community’s efforts to attract investment and jobs.
Sandpoint, Idaho, is another growing area that has enticed Californians with its golf and ski resorts.
“Retiring in California is nearly impossible,” said Bob Ficken, who relocated from the San Francisco Bay Area to Sandpoint shortly before retiring as a human resource manager. “The state ends up taking anywhere between 25% and 30% of everything you make.”
Still, the arrival of new residents poses a conundrum for local officials, who value the economic benefits they bring but must contend with inadequate infrastructure to sustain growth. Locals complain about traffic congestion, noise, overcrowded schools, and even homelessness.
“Especially in cities like Whitefish, which is now becoming almost a luxury resort center, they’re having a lot of disagreements on what type of house should be built,” says Montana author Doherty. “A lot of affordable housing advocates want high density units, but others are pushing back.”
According to Fuller, the influx is straining infrastructure in Jackson County.
“You see huge issues with infrastructure as well, with roads, roads that were not designed to handle truck traffic breaking down a lot of the time,” he said. “In the last couple of years, two new high schools have been built here to accommodate growth.”
