Why North Korea would want to go to war for Russia

Thousands of North Korean soldiers look to be joining Russia’s fight against Ukraine at a critical time on the battlefield.

North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to Russia as the alliance between the countries deepens, and they appear to be headed to the front lines of the Ukraine war.

The US said last week it had evidence of the arrival of some 3,000 North Korean troops at Russian military bases for possible deployment in Ukraine, confirming earlier intelligence from both Ukraine and South Korea. The White House said that the US believed the soldiers were undergoing training.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Monday that he could “confirm that North Korean troops have been sent to Russia and that North Korean military units have been deployed to the Kursk region,” Russian territory Ukrainian forces invaded in early August.

Later on Monday, the Department of Defense updated its figures, saying that 10,000 North Korean troops were on their way. A Pentagon spokesperson said that “we are increasingly concerned that Russia intends to use these soldiers in combat or to support combat operations against Ukrainian forces.”

Why is North Korea helping Russia?

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have strengthened relations and cooperation in ways not seen since the Cold War.

Ties between Russia and North Korea entered a new phase earlier this year when Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a new mutual defense agreement during a summit in Pyongyang.

The defense pact, which the Russian State Duma ratified last Thursday, states that the signatories will help one another in the event of an armed attack. The moment marks the closest North Korean-Russian relations since the Cold War.

Putin and Kim have been strengthening their relationship throughout the Ukraine war, meeting last fall to discuss an arms deal agreement that ultimately saw North Korea provide ammunition and weapons to Russia. That event followed earlier interactions for similar purposes.

That growing partnership between Russia and North Korea, countries aligned in their position against the US-led liberal world order, during this war has brought things to their present state.

What kind of support is Russia getting?

Public evidence from the Conflict Armament Research group documented fragments of North Korean missiles made this year used on the battlefield in Ukraine.

The US first accused North Korea of sending Russia ammunition in September 2022, and Ukrainian and American officials have documented the use of North Korean weapons, including ballistic missiles, on the battlefield. Estimates on how much ammo Pyongyang sent Moscow vary, but the West and South Korea believe the total for artillery ammunition is somewhere in the millions.

Russia has used North Korea’s weapons as a stopgap as it grapples with the high demands of this conflict on industries targeted by sanctions and affected by production issues. The Russians use weapon systems from Iran as well. The quality and performance of the weapons provided have been mixed.

In the same way that Russia has struggled with ammunition shortages, it has also struggled with manpower shortfalls in this high-casualty conflict.

“Over 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Putin’s war, and he’s unable to sustain his assault in Ukraine without foreign support,” NATO chief Rutte said Monday, saying it was a sign of “growing desperation” on Putin’s end to bring in North Korean forces.

What is North Korea getting in return?

North Korea has much to gain from a partnership with Russia, and any military developments would have major implications in the Indo-Pacific region.

It’s unclear what exactly is driving North Korea to become increasingly involved in the war and send troops to Russia. “We don’t have a good sense of that,” White House National Security Council spokesperson Kirby told reporters last week. “But that’s what’s so concerning to us.”

Kim is in a strong position to demand food, petroleum products, or even military technology, all of which analysts have identified as possibilities. By sending troops instead of just weapons and ammunition, Pyongyang appears to be paying a very high price for whatever it’s getting in return, which is telling in its own way.

Technologies for nuclear-powered submarines, which North Korea wants, could be a big ask. North Korea also has an aging fighter jet fleet it wants to upgrade and a desire for advanced satellite technologies. It could seek to improve its defense industrial base as well.

But North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs are the crowned jewels. In June, when the focus was solely on weapons and ammo, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said any discussions about what North Korea would get from Russia would likely involve “nuclear or long-range missile-development plans.”

North Korea also gets a certain amount of leverage against the US and its allies through its close ties to Russia, and through its involvement in the Ukraine war, its military stands to gain combat experience and performance data on its weapons.

How are friends and foes reacting?

Ukraine faces dire conditions on the battlefield, including manpower issues.

Kim’s apparent decision to send North Korean troops to support Russia’s war has raised a number of alarms. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin called this a “very serious issue.”

The Biden administration would “continue to surge security assistance” to Kyiv and was discussing “the right next steps” with allies and partners, Kirby said. He noted the US would be communicating with China on the issue, too.

Publicly, China has remained mum, with a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson saying last week that Beijing “does not have information” on the deployment and would continue to push for deescalation in the conflict. Beijing has often aligned with Russia and North Korea, and Western officials have accused China of also giving military aid to Russia in return for certain technologies and information.

North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine war is, beyond Ukraine, perhaps most concerning for South Korea. The country’s spy agency reported that Kim promised around 10,000 troops to Russia and that those forces have been training in Russia since September.

The development has prompted Seoul’s leadership to reconsider its long-standing ban on directly providing weapons to a country in conflict. South Korea previously supported Ukraine through a loophole, sending ammunition via allies and partners, including the US. But last week, senior South Korean officials indicated that a change in policy was under consideration.

Such a move would bring both Koreas deeper into the conflict and risk raising tensions at an already fraught time on the peninsula.