Who Wall Street thinks will win the election

Many of the bigwigs of finance have picked their sides, but Wall Street seems to believe one candidate has the upper hand in this year’s presidential election.

Betting markets have leaned toward former President Donald Trump, and the financial markets have already priced in a Trump win, according to billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller. A note from Barclays London-based analyst Emmanuel Cau stated that European stocks are already trading at a discount due to the potential impact of tariffs.

A survey of SumZero’s investor community — a mix of small hedge funds, family offices, private equity firms, and more — found that 53% believe Trump will prevail. The survey included responses from just 119 members, but reflects the thinking of a segment of analysts and investors influencing meaningful amounts of money. The consensus among respondents is that a Trump victory would create a favorable environment for companies in the fossil fuels, financials, and US industrials sectors.

Meanwhile, “renewable energy, ESG investments, and retail” may struggle, the survey notes. SumZero — which was founded by Divya Narendra, who started the Facebook predecessor with the Winklevoss twins in college — has more than 16,000 investors on its platform sharing investment ideas, according to its website.

This Trump belief is not limited to just fans of the former president.

Billionaire Citadel founder and big GOP donor Ken Griffin has been critical of the former president, calling him a “three-time loser” in 2022. But he predicted Trump would beat Vice President Kamala Harris at a conference in Saudi Arabia last week, even if it is close.

“It is a race that Trump is favored to win, but it is almost a coin toss,” Griffin said at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh.

Prediction markets, which have exploded this year as online gambling grows across the US, certainly lean toward Trump, and Druckenmiller said in mid-October that markets are “very convinced” of a Republican victory.

But Wall Street has certainly been wrong before. Few mainstream investors and bankers supported Trump in his first run when he unexpectedly beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. This time around, he has big-name billionaire supporters, such as Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and a victory wouldn’t catch the investment community off guard again. One of the world’s most accurate economists, Christophe Barraud, for instance, is putting his credibility on the line for a Trump win.

But, at least for one of finance’s biggest names, the race is way too close to be 100% on a prediction.

“We are at this moment of peak uncertainty,” Griffin said.