An under-the-radar indicator shows global growth is stalling, research firm says

A port in China

An under-the-radar indicator that’s historically served as a bellwether for global economic growth is pointing to a slowdown, BCA Research said.

The firm’s analysts point to an across-the-board deceleration in exports from East Asian countries.

Singaporean domestic exports, excluding oil, missed expectations and decelerated in October, falling 7.4% from the month prior and 4.6% from the year before. In particular, those exports to China plunged 22.3% year-over-year, which shows China’s stimulus measures aren’t boosting demand as officials in Beijing had hoped, the analysts said.

Singaporean electronics exports, meanwhile, grew but slowed down considerably, up 2.6% from the year before but slowing from 4.0% growth in September. Japanese core machinery orders for September also missed expectations, dipping 0.7% from the month prior and 4.8% on the year.

While those data points may look like they’re unique to individual economies, taken in aggregate they are an indication of global growth prospects, the research firm says.

“East Asian exports are a bellwether for the global economy, and these numbers corroborate negative signals from leading indicators of global trade,” the analysts said in a Monday note.

Those data points will likely continue to worsen amid heightened trade tensions, the analysts wrote. Donald Trump’s election win has sparked worries of a pending trade war, given his proposals for sweeping tariffs of 10%-20% on all countries, and steeper tariffs of 60% on China.

If implemented, that could pose a hit to economic growth worldwide, economists warn.

Even though they haven’t been finalized yet, the BCA analysts said the plans have already started weighing on investment outside the US. Both European and emerging markets stocks sold off immediately after Trump’s win and continue to trade below their pre-election levels, while a gauge of non-US stocks saw its steepest daily decline since August the week after Election Day.

Those dynamics, plus stretched equity valuations, make for a higher risk of volatility in the coming months, so investors should rotate into defensive positions, the analysts say.

“Heightened trade tensions in a slowing global economy with elevated equity valuations is a challenging environment. The next few months will remain volatile; investors should prepare to position more defensively in 2025,” the analysts say.