What Trump’s trade plans mean for industry in Canada and Mexico — from oil to autos

Donald Trump announced higher tariffs for Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese exports.

Donald Trump took aim at three of America’s biggest trading partners on Monday, announcing tariffs on imports from China, Mexico and Canada.

The US received 83% of Mexico’s exports and 75% of Canada’s exports last year, official data shows. Mexico worth $379 billion worth of exports to the US in the first nine months of this year, with Canadian exports topping $309 billion, the data shows.

Investors reacted to Trump’s latest tariff threats by betting on the greenback and paring their exposure to vulnerable assets. The US dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso, while stock markets in Europe and Asia dipped.

“Investors should prepare for immediate volatility in sectors such as automotive, technology, and agriculture — industries deeply intertwined with trade agreements and foreign markets,” Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, said in a Tuesday note.

These are some Canadian and Mexican industries that could be affected by Trump’s new tariffs.

Energy

Canada is the top supplier of crude oil to the US.

It sold mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products worth $128 billion to the US last year, accounting for nearly one-third of its total exports to the country, Trading Economics data shows.

Tariffs stand to make energy products more expensive, raising overall inflation and eroding consumers’ spending power.

Wilbur Ross, who served as Commerce Secretary in Trump’s first administration, told CBC earlier this month he didn’t expect the incoming president to tax Canadian energy imports.

“We import a lot of energy from Canada. I can’t imagine that the president would want to tax that, because all it would do would be to raise our costs and not help anything with more American jobs,” Ross said.

Autos

Both Canada and Mexico send a substantial number of vehicles to the US, with auto exports worth $58 billion and $112 billion respectively in 2022, per Trading Economics data.

Mexico is an auto powerhouse. The industry employs more than one million people and has long attracted equipment and parts makers that serve the auto industry.

Mexico exported 255,910 cars in October to the US, a 7.5% increase from the previous year, per official data — just over three quarters of Mexico’s total auto exports.

Automakers with operations in Mexico include Toyota, Nissan, and Honda. Tesla announced plans in 2023 for a new factory south of the border that is now in limbo, and the tariffs could complicate matters for Elon Musk’s company.

Tesla’s Chinese rival BYD is also planning a factory in Mexico, but Mexican officials fear it could anger Trump, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

Machinery and more
Both Canada and Mexico count machinery as one of their largest export categories to the US. Canada exported $34 billion worth of “machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers” in 2023, while Mexico shipped goods worth $91 billion in that category the previous year, per Trading Economics.

Beyond energy, vehicles, and machinery, Canada exports commodities, plastics, electronics, and other goods worth tens of billions of dollars to the US annually.

Mexico exports similar amounts of electrical and technical equipment, furniture, plastics, food, and beverages across its northern border.