Google DeepMind says its new AI weather prediction tool outperforms top forecasters

Google DeepMind said GenCast, its new weather forecaster, can make better predictions.

Google DeepMind announced its new artificial intelligence weather prediction tool called GenCast on Wednesday.

Google DeepMind said GenCast differs from other models because it has “adapted to the spherical geometry of the Earth and learns to accurately generate the complex probability distribution of future weather scenarios when given the most recent state of the weather as input.”

As a result, Google DeepMind said GenCast provides better forecasts than the “top operating system,” referencing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and its model — known as ENS — that makes predictions up to 15 days in advance. GenCast, which was trained on the European center’s data, “consistently outperformed ENS” when it predicted extreme heat, extreme cold, and high wind speeds.

“Now consider tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes and typhoons. Getting better and more advanced warnings of where they’ll strike land is invaluable. GenCast delivers superior predictions of the tracks of these deadly storms,” the company said.

In an article in Nature published on Wednesday, Google DeepMind researchers wrote that GenCast had “greater skill than ENS on 97.2% of 1,320 targets we evaluated.”

“Better predictions of extreme weather enable better decisions,” DeepMind said in its press release. The company also said it would share real-time and historic forecasts from GenCast.

“We are eager to engage with the wider weather community, including academic researchers, meteorologists, data scientists, renewable energy companies, and organizations focused on food security and disaster response,” the company said.