War in Ukraine would be a tough test of Sweden’s Gripen, a jet made for a fight with Russia it’s never seen
A Gripen aircraft performing at an air show in India.
Sweden’s Gripen, a fighter jet built for a war with Russia, is considered a good fit for Ukraine, but the aircraft hasn’t been tested the way it could be in this war.
The conflict in Ukraine has been a test bed for weapons on both sides, from Russia’s new hypersonic missiles to older systems such as the American Patriots, showing their users how they perform in high-end combat. Some systems have underperformed, while others have far exceeded expectations in this tough operating environment.
Not only could giving the jets to Ukraine — which Stockholm has indicated is possible — strengthen its air force, but it could also give NATO insight into how a key capability performs in a real-world combat scenario, specifically one for which it was made.
Helpful for NATO
Sweden initially refused to put its jet on the table for Ukraine, but it has slowly become more open to the idea. The defense ministry said in September that it was acquiring Gripen parts, and in late November, it was reported that those parts were being transferred to Ukraine.
It is, however, unclear whether Ukraine will receive the actual jets and when that would happen. Sweden’s defense minister, Pål Jonson, said recently that his country had been advised to wait until Ukraine was further along in setting up its new American-made F-16 fleet. Concerns have been raised about unintentionally overloading Kyiv with new equipment.
But at some point down the road, there’s the possibility Kyiv receives the Gripen, a rugged, capable fourth-generation fighter.
Designed at the end of the Cold War, the jet is operated by about half a dozen countries. It was built to fight Russia’s Sukhoi fighter aircraft, but it’s never been in that kind of combat.
A JAS-39 Gripen at a military base near Prague in 2005.
Tim Robinson, a military-aviation specialist at the UK’s Royal Aeronautical Society, told B-17 the aircraft was designed to fit into Sweden’s vision of having a dispersed and mobile air force to counter Russia as a threat. “The idea of keeping on the move, rapid turnarounds, and being very, very hard to destroy,” he said.
He said NATO would be interested in seeing how the jet performs against Russia, especially given the aircraft has “quite a good electronic warfare system,” which this fight has shown is necessary to defeat Russia.
Air-to-air combat isn’t common in Ukraine, but George Barros, a warfare expert at the Institute for the Study of War think tank, told B-17 that “there may be some tactical advantages that Sweden can learn from Gripen’s performance against Russian planes.” It could also benefit the larger NATO alliance.
Sweden joined NATO in March of this year as a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the alliance celebrated the move as one that would help it in the event of a conflict with Russia. That’s because of Sweden’s geographical location and because its military was built around the Russia threat.
Sweden’s Saab Gripen.
And there are benefits for the jet’s manufacturers as well. Michael Bohnert, a warfare expert at the RAND Corporation, said Saab is in “global competition” with its rivals as countries seek fourth-generation fighters. That means Sweden — as well as France, which has offered Ukraine Mirage aircraft — “both have strong incentives to provide aircraft with high performance and support to Ukraine.”
Robinson said that having a jet proven in combat is “definitely a factor when selling military aircraft.”
The Gripen was used in Libya in 2011, but it was only for reconnaissance. The models that Ukraine would probably get are the older C and D models, but if those versions were to do well in Ukraine, it could still help the sale and reputation of newer models now being produced.
Retired US Army Maj. Gen. Gordon “Skip” Davis, who served as NATO’s deputy assistant secretary-general for its Defense Investment Division, told B-17 the Gripen performing well in Ukraine “would be a great boost for Saab and Swedish defense industry.”
“If it does well in Ukraine, then it would be the selling point,” he said. “But I would also tend to think that it would do well simply because the Swedes themselves have been so focused on Russia as a potential threat and enemy for quite some time.”
Helpful for Ukraine
The main reason to send the jets to Ukraine, though, would be to boost its airpower. Barros said that “sending Ukraine more aircraft is a step in the right direction.”
War experts have said the Gripen is the jet best suited for Ukraine in the long term.
Bohnert previously told B-17 that “Gripens are a way better fit for Ukraine” than F-16s, as they’re “a little more purpose-built” for what Ukraine needs. “Sweden, being under that Russian threat, designed the Gripens to fight this way that F-16s weren’t,” he said.
The aircraft was designed to work from civilian roads so that it can still function if runways and airbases are destroyed; Russia has targeted that infrastructure during the war. It also requires less maintenance than some aircraft, such as the F-16s, which is useful for a country actively at war.
A Ukrainian air force F-16 fighter jet in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.
Robinson said that “it’s almost perfect for Ukraine’s needs in a way,” but he noted that the jet has drawbacks, such as there not being as many in service as F-16s, meaning allies couldn’t be as helpful with things like providing spares.
Ukraine’s future may rely more on support from Europe with former US President Donald Trump set to take office next year. He has been more critical of support for Ukraine.
Peter Layton, a fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute who’s a former Royal Australian Air Force officer, told B-17 that since the Gripen has some US-made components, the Trump administration would probably have to agree to Sweden giving Ukraine Gripens if it tried to do so. For the time being, it remains uncertain whether Sweden will ultimately commit the jets.
