Russian troops are likely still at their key bases in Syria, and it will be ‘obvious’ if they try to leave: senior analyst

Russian forces at Khmeimim Air Base, pictured here in a 2017 photo with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, are probably still maintaining a presence in Syria.

The Russian military is still stationed at its Syrian bases after the fall of Bashar Assad’s government, and analysts say an evacuation will be easy to spot.

The Kremlin has two major facilities in the country that were hosted by Assad — a naval base in Tartus and Khmeimim Air Base — which are crucial to Russian access to the Mediterranean and Africa.

Russian state media says rebel forces now control the Latakia province, where these bases are.

With Moscow’s long-term access to those bases now under question, satellite images show that its warships have vacated Tartus since Monday. Several were spotted holding positions about 15 km from the coast.

It’s unclear whether these vessels will return.

But satellite images also show that a full evacuation of Tartus hasn’t happened, Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Financial Times.

“And if they have to leave Tartus, you’d actually see more ships show up to help move things out,” she told the outlet.

It’s possible that Russia moved its ships temporarily out to sea to protect them while conditions in Syria remain uncertain.

At Khmeimim, which Russia uses as its primary channel for flying troops into Africa, satellite images this week showed that much of the Kremlin’s equipment, including fighter jets and helicopters, remained on-site.

Russian aircraft at Khmeimim Air Base on Monday.

Massicot wrote in a thread on X that an evacuation of the airbase “will be obvious.”

“An air evacuation would take hundreds of sorties of IL-76 and An-124, not the handful identified yesterday at Khmeimim,” she wrote, referring to several Ilyushin and Antonov freight airliners spotted at Khmeimim earlier this week.

“When Russian forces deployed to Syria in 2015, they flew almost 300 sorties in two weeks, and that was before base expansion,” Massicot added.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, DC, think tank, wrote that Russia was probably delaying a total evacuation as it tried to suss out a deal with a new Syrian government.

They said that Russia was still maintaining its assets in Khmeimim and that a “lack of a coherent Russian response” indicated Moscow was still watching the situation.

“The Kremlin is very likely hesitant to completely evacuate all military assets from Syria in the event that it can establish a relationship with Syrian opposition forces and the transitional government and continue to ensure the security of its basing and personnel in Syria,” the analysts wrote.

The Kremlin hopes it won’t have to evacuate

Russia is also publicly signaling that it isn’t giving up on its vital bases.

Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, told reporters that Russia had been in contact with “those capable of ensuring the security of military bases.”

The Russian state media outlet TASS meanwhile cited an unnamed source in the Kremlin saying Syrian opposition leaders had guaranteed the safety of Tartus and Khmeimim.

On the other hand, Ukraine’s intelligence division said on Tuesday that Russia had a plan to evacuate Khmeimim with Antonovs and Ilyushins and that Russian troops had begun dismantling equipment at Tartus under the supervision of special forces. It didn’t say how it sourced this information.

Russia’s future in Syria is unclear

Despite those forecasts, it’s unclear how a post-Assad Syria will take shape. Rebel forces in the country were largely splintered, consisting of various separate factions sharing the common cause of toppling Assad.

Mohammed al-Bashir, who ran rebel-held pockets of northern Syria, said on Tuesday that he’d been named interim prime minister.

The Islamist group at the helm of the rebel victory, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a former Al Qaeda-affiliated fighter who’s said to have cut ties with the terrorist organization.

But he’s still listed as a terrorist by the US, with a $10 million bounty on his head. Though he has been a prominent contender for leadership, he hasn’t taken an official leadership position as of press time.