Pac-12 picks: Arizona keeps rolling against the spread as another ranked opponent awaits

Utah, Cal, Stanford and ASU are also home underdogs this week

Arizona is tied for sixth place in the Pac-12 standings but leads the point spread by a wide margin.

In fact, the Wildcats lead the nation in point differential, having covered in six of their seven games. (The exception: a one-point victory at Stanford). Only Oklahoma, Penn State, and UNLV have a better record (6-1).

In a different category, no team comes close: the Wildcats cover the point spread by an average of 10.9 points.

That enormous average is based largely on a single performance. At Washington State, the Wildcats were 7.5-point underdogs and won by 38 points.

In addition, they were 21-point underdogs at USC and lost by two points.

And they were 19.5-point underdogs against Washington, which they lost by seven points.

At the time of kickoff, all three teams (USC, WSU, and Washington) were ranked.

That means the Wildcats are 3-0 against the spread when playing against ranked opponents, covering the spread by an average of 25.7 points.

They play a ranked opponent, Oregon State, this week.

They are 3.5-point underdogs this week.

They’re also at home.

To the picks …

Last week: 2-2 Season: 25-24-1 Five-star special: 5-3

All picks against the spread Lines taken from BetMGM (via VegasInsider.com)

(All times Pacific)

Oregon at Utah Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on FOX Line: Oregon -7 (total: 48.5) Comment: After a huge road win over USC, Utah is a 7-point underdog for the second week in a row, but the injuries keep piling up. (The most recent player to be lost for the season is star linebacker Lander Barton.) Along the lines of scrimmage, Oregon is far more complete than USC and one of the few teams capable of competing with the ultra-physical Utes. The Ducks will also put more pressure on Utah’s inexperienced quarterback, Bryson Barnes. The Utes haven’t been a home underdog since losing to Washington early in the 2018 season. We prefer Oregon to win, but we’ll take the points. Pick: Utah

USC at Cal Kickoff: 1 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks Line: USC -11 (total: 66.5) Comment: Consider the anti-Arizona: The Trojans are one of the worst spread teams in the country, having covered just twice in eight games. They were huge underdogs against Colorado and Arizona, but won narrowly before falling flat to Notre Dame and Utah. The Bears are mediocre on defense and erratic on offense, but they typically outperform USC. They have covered the spread in four of their last five games, lost by a touchdown last year, and are coming off a bye week. Pick: Cal

Washington at Stanford Kickoff: 4 p.m. on FS1 Line: Washington -26.5 (total: 59.5) Comment: In the final game of a series that began in 1893, both teams are looking for traction. The undefeated Huskies must re-establish their lead after a close loss to Arizona State, while the Cardinal has been run off the field in five of the last six halves. (The second half in Boulder is an exception.) We’re not convinced that UW quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is in good enough shape to launch his left-handed missiles anywhere on the field, or that the defense is strong enough to keep Stanford in single digits. Given the point total, that’s a massive spread; something has to give. Pick: Stanford

Colorado at UCLA Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC Line: UCLA -17.5 (total: 63.5) Comment: The visitors had two weeks to recover from their epic meltdown against Stanford and prepare for the Bruins, whereas the hosts are coming off a strong performance against Stanford. Only Old Dominion (35 sacks) has allowed more than Colorado, and UCLA’s defensive front is big, fast, and relentless. Expect CU quarterback Shedeur Sanders to spend the majority of the game on the run. If he doesn’t force the ball into coverage, the Buffs might be able to cover. Pick: UCLA

Washington State at Arizona State Kickoff: 5 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks Line: WSU -6.5 (total: 51.5) Comment: The Sun Devils covered the spread against Washington and USC, but those were huge numbers that were greatly offset by ASU’s effort level. This line falls within the scope of a competitive game that could be decided by a single play. The Cougars are struggling offensively and are under increasing pressure to snap a losing streak that could derail their bowl hopes. Expect a low-scoring game, owing primarily to the hosts: The Devils rank 117th in yards per play gained but 30th in yards per play allowed. In other words, the first team to 21 points wins. Pick: Arizona State

Oregon State at Arizona Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN Line: Oregon State -3.5 (total: 56.5) Comment: The Week 9 nightcap pits Oregon State’s relentless running game against an Arizona run defense that ranks 14th in yards allowed nationally. That suggests that the outcome is determined by other factors, specifically Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita’s efficiency against an OSU pass defense that has been strong all season. In order to balance out the narrative presented in the preceding section, we should mention that the Beavers have covered the spread in eight of the last twelve series meetings. Pick: Arizona

Straight-up winners: Oregon, Cal, Washington, UCLA, Arizona State and Oregon State

Cal is a five-star special. The Bears aren’t great, but they had two weeks to prepare, and the Trojans are, well, a shambles.