Pac-12 football: Our inaugural coaching Hot Seat breakdown of the 2023 hiring cycle

The conference could experience no coaching vacancies, or it could have a handful

The 2023 coaching carousel has begun to spin and should reach full speed within weeks as schools act before the transfer portal opens in early December and recruiting peaks in the middle of the month with National Signing Day.

Changes in conference affiliation may also have an impact on Pac-12 decisions.

Welcome to the Hotline’s first Hot Seat ratings of the 2023 hiring cycle, in which we evaluate each school’s head coach from two perspectives: the likelihood of a school-initiated dismissal and the likelihood of a voluntary departure.

The ratings will be updated on a regular basis until the carousel comes to a halt. We have no idea when that will be.

(Note: Salary figures sourced from USA Today’s invaluable salary database.)

Here we go…

Arizona

Coach: Jeff Fisch (third season) Seat heat: Sub-zero

The nitty gritty: Fisch has done wonders in Tucson, transforming a 1-11 team (in 2021) into a Pac-12 title contender. His use of the transfer portal, combined with smart recruiting, has elevated Arizona’s offensive line play to a level not seen in a decade. Vacancy probability: 33% Fisch is due a significant raise from his current annual salary of $3.25, but his future in Tucson is dependent on offers from other schools: He has the potential to be one of the hottest coaches on the market and could be lured away to a football-focused campus. With only one winning season on his resume — this season — the sample size is small. As a result, we don’t consider Fisch a candidate for positions with the bluest of bluebloods. However, there may be numerous openings at the light-blue level that provide Fisch with resources he does not have in Tucson.

Arizona State

Coach: Kenny Dillingham (first season) Seat heat: Nonexistent Nitty gritty: We have been impressed with Dillingham’s work under extraordinarily difficult circumstances. Battered by injuries and without a bowl berth available, the Sun Devils (3-7) are nonetheless a few plays away from a .500 record. ASU fans have nothing to complain about, at least with regard to the performance of the coaching staff. Chance of vacancy: 0 percent Comment: Dillingham’s strong ties to the university — he grew up in Phoenix and attended ASU — provide a level of stability that other programs lack. We won’t call Dillingham an ASU lifer just yet, but it’s easy to see him coaching in Tempe for the next decade or more. Only an alum would put up with the administrative gaffes and the NCAA sanctions while remaining steadfastly committed to the program.

Cal

Coach: Justin Wilcox (seventh season) Seat heat: Warm … and getting warmer Nitty gritty: After a rough stretch through the middle of the season, Wilcox has a terrific opportunity to cool his seat: The Bears are two wins from bowl eligibility and have winnable games remaining (at Stanford and UCLA). His program has undergone an identity shift: Cal no longer plays ironclad defense, but the offense has improved substantially — and it’s far better to be entertaining than boring, especially if you aren’t winning regularly. Chance of vacancy: 10 percent Comment: Despite Berkeley’s continued mediocrity, we don’t see the Bears changing their ways. Chancellor Carol Christ is retiring, athletic director Jim Knowlton is preoccupied with other matters, and the athletic department cannot afford to change coaching staffs. (Wilcox made $4.4 million this season and has four years left on his contract.) Also, we believe the school wants stability at the helm of the program as it transitions to the ACC. But the coming year will be crucial for Wilcox.

Colorado

Coach: Deion Sanders (first season) Seat heat: Same as frozen nitrogen (-346 degrees) Nitty gritty: The Sanders Experience has been a phenomenal success for Colorado despite the mid-season collapse — it stands as an example of the influence a premier football coach can have on the university writ large. Clearly, Sanders is serious about his craft. Chance of vacancy: 5 percent Comment: Sanders’ name has already been linked to the Texas A&M vacancy, and more rumors are expected in the coming weeks — no one believes he’s committed to Boulder for the long haul. We make no claim to know whether Sanders aspires to be an NFL coach or a college blueblood. (Texas A&M is hardly a blueblood.) But he doesn’t need the money because his son (Shedeur) is still eligible and CU’s roster will only improve in 2024. In other words, why are you leaving now? His stock is nowhere near its peak. However, if a premier position becomes available, we will revise this assessment.

Oregon

Coach: Dan Lanning (second season) Seat heat: Ice cold Nitty gritty: The Ducks are in contention for the playoffs, Lanning appears content in Eugene, and his bank account is brimming with gold. Lanning received a contract extension worth $8 million this year (including deferred compensation) with $200,000 annual raises up to $9 million after a 10-win debut season. However, he is 0-3 against Washington and Oregon State, so things could get interesting in the coming weeks. 0.1 percent chance of vacancy Comment: In response to speculation linking him to the Texas A&M job, Lanning said, “There’s zero chance I’ll be coaching somewhere else.” And, to a point, we believe him. The number of schools that could entice Lanning away is limited to one hand, with Georgia and Alabama at the top of the list. However, there is no indication that either position will be available this winter.

Oregon State

Coach: Jonathan Smith (sixth season) Seat heat: Cold as OSU’s relationship with Oregon Nitty gritty: Few coaches in college football can match Smith’s success in Corvallis, where the Beavers have won 18 games in the last two seasons and are vying for a conference title. His use of the transfer portal, astute recruiting evaluations, and masterful staff hires have all contributed to OSU’s rise. Vacancy probability: 33% Comment: Smith’s predicament is more complicated than most. He signed a new six-year contract last winter (worth approximately $5 million per year) and is undoubtedly due for another raise. He’s also an OSU alumnus who seems at ease in the Pacific Northwest. However, the school’s conference affiliation is unknown, as are the resources available to Smith to keep the program running smoothly. His name will be attached to a number of openings, but the one to keep an eye on is in Los Angeles. Smith grew up in the shadow of the Rose Bowl and would undoubtedly prefer Big Ten stability if UCLA had a vacancy.

Stanford

Coach: Troy Taylor (first season) Seat heat: Cryogenically frozen Nitty gritty: Taylor’s initial year has gone as expected, with the Cardinal’s lack of talent leading to more losses than wins. Stanford is well coached, and it’s easy to see Taylor producing a competitive program if given time to upgrade his personnel. But because Stanford’s use of the transfer portal is limited, the roster overhaul will take time. Chance of vacancy: 0.0001 percent Comment: We’ve seen enough to know Taylor, a Cal graduate, is a good fit for Stanford. Our prediction is based on Taylor’s level of comfort with the school: Does Taylor believe campus leadership will provide him with the resources he needs to compete? Or will he become dissatisfied and develop a wandering eye? That possibility is infinitesimal, but not zero, in our opinion.

UCLA

Coach: Chip Kelly (sixth season) Seat heat: Mojave Desert in May Nitty gritty: Kelly’s tenure has failed to live up to the expectations that greeted his arrival in November 2017, with the program failing to break into the Pac-12’s top tier. The loss to Arizona State last week was terrible on multiple levels, fueling speculation that a change is on the way. Chance of vacancy: 49 percent Comment: This is the job to keep an eye on over the next two weeks, partly because Kelly’s position appears to be precarious, and partly because an opening in Westwood could have repercussions throughout the conference. Kelly recently received a contract extension (approximately $6 million per year), which left the school with a manageable buyout. Is he the right coach to lead UCLA into the Big Ten, or would a new leader be better for the program? And how will the announced retirement of chancellor Gene Block (next summer) affect the decision-making process? The candidate pool is extremely important, and UCLA may have quality options in Tucson and, especially, Corvallis.

USC

Coach: Lincoln Riley (second season) Seat heat: USC has four losses; no more need be said Nitty gritty: The program’s trajectory under Riley has deviated from our expectations: we anticipated a modestly successful first season, followed by a high-end second year. Instead, the Trojans won 11 games in 2022 and are now struggling. Not surprisingly, USC’s problems stem from its porous defense. As a result, despite having a generational talent at quarterback (Caleb Williams), the Trojans will miss the playoffs twice. Chance of vacancy: 5 percent Comment: We’re constantly amused by calls for Riley to be fired or claims that he was a bad hire. (Neither Nick Saban nor Kirby Smart were walking into Heritage Hall.) The slim chance of a vacancy mentioned above is rooted in Riley’s potential to look elsewhere as his frustrations mount. In that case, the right job would have to become available, such as an NFL job in Los Angeles with a franchise quarterback.

Utah

Coach: Kyle Whittingham (19th season) Seat heat: Not relevant — Whittingham sits on a throne Nitty gritty: Utah’s quest for a third consecutive conference championship has been derailed by injuries, but the fundamentals of the program are unchanged. The Utes will compete for a title each year they experience reasonably good health, regardless of conference affiliation. Chance of vacancy: 5 percent Comment: Whittingham will coach the Utes for as long as he wants to. We’re not convinced the soon-to-be 64-year-old will see his contract expire in 2027. Whittingham’s desire to spend time with his family and the rapidly changing dynamics of college football, with NIL dictating roster composition and athletes approaching employee status, weigh more heavily in our calculations. He didn’t sign up for this job all those years ago.

Washington

Coach: Kalen DeBoer (second season) Seat heat: Vladivostok in January Nitty gritty: We can’t help but note the contrast in public response to the Pac-12’s hiring trifecta in the late fall of 2021, when USC grabbed national attention with Lincoln Riley, Oregon did the same with Dan Lanning and Washington flew well under the media radar with a guy from Fresno State. Turns out, DeBoer might have been the best hire of them all. Chance of vacancy: 25 percent Comment: Another situation to keep an eye on. DeBoer is grossly underpaid at $4.2 million per year and is due a massive raise. We believe the administration at UW will recognize the need to double his salary and act accordingly. (If not, president Ana Mari Cauce will be greeted by irate donors.) Will a contract windfall be enough to keep DeBoer if a blueblood job becomes available? (Greetings, Michigan.) We have reservations. However, if there is no turnover at the top of the sport, the Huskies should be fine. Fans should not be alarmed just yet.

Washington State

Coach: Jake Dickert (second season) Seat heat: Microscopic signs of thawing Nitty gritty: Dickert took WSU to a bowl game last year, started this season 4-0 and was one of the hottest names in the business at the end of September — so hot, in fact, that he was linked to the Michigan State vacancy. Now? Not so much. The Cougars have collapsed and are unlikely to keep their postseason streak alive. Chance of vacancy: 0.1 percent Comment:To be clear, there is zero chance of the school initiating a termination. However, given WSU’s uncertain status following the collapse of the conference, and with Dickert publicly lamenting the state of the NIL war chest in Pullman, it would be foolish to dismiss the possibility of him looking elsewhere. That is especially true if WSU’s lawsuit against the Pac-12 fails and the Cougars are left stranded.