Pac-12 power ratings: UW vaults Oregon after big win, Arizona climbs again and USC drops

Colorado, the talk of the sport in September, brings up the rear

The first significant Pac-12 roster news of the offseason came on Sunday, with two weeks left in the regular season: Utah quarterback Cam Rising announced his return for 2024 after missing the entire season due to a knee injury.

Rising’s presence immediately elevates the Utes to the top of the Big 12 race and serves as a foreshadowing of the chaos to come.

With playoff and bowl announcements, coaching turnover, and player movement, the first half of December is the busiest time of the college football season.

Here are some important dates to mark on your calendar:

Pac-12 championship game on December 1st

College Football Playoff and bowl game pairings are announced on December 3rd.

Transfer portal opens on December 4 (closing date: January 2)

Recruits can sign early between December 20 and 22.

CFP championship game on January 8th

The NFL Draft early-entry deadline is January 15th.

It should be a dizzying stretch, and the Hotline will cover every piece of news affecting Pac-12 schools — regardless of conference affiliations — next year.

In terms of power ratings…

(All times are in Pacific)

1. Washington (11-0/8-0)

2 last week Last week: 2 Result: won at Oregon State 22-20 Next up: vs. Washington State (1 p.m. on Fox) Comment: If we had known before kickoff that UW would not score in the second half at Reser Stadium, the Hotline would have assumed a loss without hesitation. But the defense stood tall — or at least tall enough — and the win propelled the Huskies ahead of Oregon in our power rankings for the first time in weeks.

2. Oregon (10-1/7-1)

1 last week Last week: 1 Result: won at Arizona State 49-13 Next up: vs. Oregon State (Friday, 5:30 p.m. on Fox) Comment: Northwest powerhouses: If the Ducks and Huskies played 10 times on a neutral field — say, a grassy meadow in Mount St. Helens’ shadow — they would each win five. So UW has the advantage here because it has a stronger resume.

3. Arizona (8-3/6-2)

Last week: 4 Result: beat Utah 42-18 Next up: at Arizona State (12:30 p.m. on ESPN) Comment: Arizona will be aware of the stakes long before they take the field in Tempe. If Oregon wins on Friday night, the Wildcats will be eliminated from contention for the conference title. If Oregon loses on Friday night, everything is on the line. This could have an effect on the betting line, as Arizona is currently favored by 12.5 points.

4. Oregon State (8-3/5-3)

Last week: 3 Result: lost to Washington 22-20 Next up: at Oregon (Friday, 5:30 p.m. on Fox) Comment: There is no doubt that OSU fans are disappointed after the loss to Washington and subsequent elimination from the Pac-12 title race. Consider this for perspective on the season: The three losses are by a total of eight points, with two coming to ranked teams according to the AP and CFP.

5. UCLA (7-4/4-4)

Last week: 7 Result: won at USC 38-20 Next up: vs. Cal (7:30 p.m. on ESPN) Comment: It was extremely astute of Chip Kelly to leak to the media that his job was in jeopardy in order to elicit sympathy and rally the Bruins behind their coach in the most important game. (Of course, we’re joking. But the saga couldn’t have ended any better for Kelly.)

6. Utah (7-4/4-4)

Last week: 5 Result: lost at Arizona 42-18 Next up: vs. Colorado (12 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks) Comment: According to our unofficial count, Utah had eight all-conference players unavailable Saturday due to injury, and the total could be slightly higher. Incredible.

7. USC (7-5/5-4)

Last week: 6 Result: lost to UCLA 38-20 Next up: Idle Comment: Lincoln Riley has 10 months to revamp his defense before USC’s next conference game… in Ann Arbor.

8. Cal (5-6/3-5)

Last week: 8 Result: won at Stanford 27-15 Next up: at UCLA (7:30 p.m. on ESPN) Comment: Regardless of what happens at UCLA or in a potential bowl game, the Bears have a quarterback (Fernando Mendoza) and offensive coordinator (Jake Spavital) they can be proud of. And it’s been years since we could say that without hesitation.

9. Washington State (5-6/2-6)

Last week: 12 Result: beat Colorado 56-14 Next up: at Washington (1 p.m. on Fox) Comment: We’d argue that WSU’s recovery from its midseason slump began in the fourth quarter against Cal two weeks ago, and that momentum carried over into Friday’s rout of Colorado. WSU scored 71 points in those five quarters.

10. Arizona State (3-8/2-6)

Last week: 9 Result: lost to Oregon 49-13 Next up: vs. Arizona (12:30 p.m. on ESPN) Comment: The Sun Devils were favored by 20 points in the Territorial Cup just two years ago. They are now 12.5-point underdogs. The stunning turn of events can be attributed to both good coaching in Tucson and bad management in Tempe.

11. Stanford (3-8/2-7)

Last week: 11 Result: lost to Cal 27-15 Next up: vs. Notre Dame (4 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks) Comment: From 2021-23, the Cardinal are 5-22 in conference play, their worst three-year record since the early 2000s. All of Stanford’s brainpower was apparently used to create a time machine.

12. Colorado (4-7/1-7)

Last week: 10 Result: lost at WSU 56-14 Next up: at Utah (12 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks) Comment: Barring a huge upset in Salt Lake City, where the visitors are 22-point underdogs, Colorado will finish 2023 in the same position in the Hotline’s power ratings as it did in 2022. Were the previous three months all for naught? No, not always. The Buffs were better, but the conference was as well.