Saturday Night Five: Washington clinches in Corvallis, Oregon rolls, WSU and Cal on the brink and possible policy change
The Huskies are headed to Las Vegas, but their opponent is TBD
Instant reaction to Pac-12 field developments…
- Purple Reign during the evening rain
We’ll begin at the very top — the top of the Pac-12 standings and, possibly, the top of the Pac-12 heap.
Washington overcame a wet, rowdy atmosphere in Corvallis to defeat Oregon State 22-20, with the winning margin courtesy of an OSU special teams error that resulted in a safety.
As a result, the Huskies won the regular season title and will be the top seed in the conference championship game in Las Vegas.
They are also one win away from becoming the Pac-12’s first team to go 9-0 in conference play.
Since the conference expanded in 2011 with the additions of Colorado and Utah, 14 teams have finished with an 8-1 record. Nobody has made it through nine games unscathed.
On Saturday, UW will be a huge favorite against Washington State at home. (The Huskies defeated WSU 51-33 in Pullman last year with essentially the same team.)
The win on Saturday night was similar to UW’s previous nail-biter, a 36-33 win over Oregon in October.
It lacked touchdowns and big plays, and it was less well-played. The Huskies were out of sync for long stretches of the second half in both games.
However, they were able to escape each time by making just enough plays on both sides of the ball in the fourth quarter.
Washington could easily pass Florida State for fourth place when the College Football Playoff rankings are released on Tuesday.
It’s not like it matters much. The CFP structure remains essentially unchanged: to advance to the semifinals, the Huskies must win the Pac-12 championship.
- The foe in Las Vegas
In the Pac-12 championship game, Washington will face either Oregon or Arizona.
The Ducks defeated Arizona State 49-13 in what were essentially matchups of healthy teams against MAS*H units, while Arizona defeated Utah.
If the Ducks (7-1) beat Oregon State at home on Friday night or if Arizona loses at Arizona State, they will face the Huskies again.
The Wildcats (6-2) need a win over ASU and Oregon to lose to OSU to advance to the championship game.
We like Arizona’s chances in the Territorial Cup. Arizona is relatively healthy (for late November), confident, and loaded with playmakers, whereas the Sun Devils have been beaten and battered.
However, the Wildcats will be unable to travel to Las Vegas unless Oregon loses. And, given what should be a massive disparity in mental and physical states, the Ducks losing at home to Oregon State is difficult to envision.
The Ducks are coming off a rout, while the Beavers are coming off a heartbreaking defeat.
In Tempe, the Ducks had a cakewalk, while the Beavers had a rock fight with UW.
The game will also be played in Eugene, where OSU hasn’t won since 2007.
- The foe in Las Vegas
Two other Pac-12 Week 12 results were important for the postseason.
While no team clinched a bowl berth — there are currently seven teams eligible — Washington State and California both won for the fifth time.
On Friday night, the Cougars walloped Colorado in a performance that mirrored their September success; the Bears handled Stanford methodically for their second straight win following a mid-season skid.
Both teams are one victory away from qualifying for the playoffs.
If the Cougars defeat Washington in Seattle, they will have qualified for the postseason for the eighth consecutive season (excluding 2020).
If the Bears defeat UCLA in Pasadena, they will go bowling for the first time since 2019.
Both teams will be heavy underdogs in what should be emotional finales against old rivals who will be split up due to the realignment game.
- Revisiting postseason policy
What if both the Cougars and the Bears lose their championship games?
There aren’t always enough qualified teams (six wins) to fill all of the bowl slots. So WSU and Cal may be able to keep playing with 5-7 records, correct? It’s a funny story…
The Pac-12 has approved a policy that prevents 5-7 teams from competing in the postseason in 2018.
The decision was perplexing: the conference proactively barred teams from competing (and practicing) in additional competitions.
WSU coach Mike Leach described the decision at the time as “a solution in search of a problem.”
No Pac-12 team with a 5-7 record has been available for bowl vacancies in the last five years.
However, this year is different, and the Pac-12 is reconsidering the policy, according to a source familiar with the discussions.
That doesn’t mean the 5-7 team ban will be lifted. Furthermore, lifting the ban does not guarantee a berth for the 5-7 teams; there may be no opportunities. However, the conference would be wise to reconsider its position.
To put it another way, if Washington State can go bowling at 5-7 after everything the Cougars have been through, the Pac-12 would be foolish to stand in their way.
- Oregon’s CFP hit
The Ducks handled their business in Tempe, but their resume suffered 100 miles down the freeway.
Utah’s loss to Arizona will almost certainly result in the No. 22 Utes dropping out of the College Football Playoff rankings next week.
This could be a problem for Oregon because the selection committee looks at victories over ranked opponents to determine playoff contenders.
If the Ducks are competing against a one-loss Pac-12 champion from the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, or Big 12, they must have the best resume possible.
If the Utes aren’t ranked in the top 25, the 35-6 win at Utah will be meaningless.
A Utah victory in Tucson would have improved Oregon’s chances of making the playoffs. The Ducks did not play Arizona, so if the Wildcats dropped out of the rankings, their resume would not have suffered.
