Pac-12 bowl projections: Washington to the CFP, Arizona to the Alamo and Cal sneaks in

The conference is considering a rule change that could benefit several teams

Before we get into the latest Pac-12 bowl forecast, here are some helpful reminders about the postseason selection process:

— The College Football Playoff semifinals will be held in the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl, leaving the Pac-12 champion to compete in the Fiesta, Peach, or Cotton bowls unless it qualifies for the CFP.

This season, the Pac-12 is contractually bound to seven games: the New Year’s Six, Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA, and Independence bowls. If there are more qualified teams than available spots, the conference will try to secure invitations to other bowl games that have openings.

The Pac-12 has seven bowl-eligible teams and two more that could qualify this weekend, but California and Washington State are heavy underdogs at UCLA and Washington, respectively.

What if they finish 5-7, one win shy of the qualification mark?

If there aren’t enough eligible schools to fill the 82 slots, the NCAA allows five-win teams to compete in the bowl season, but the Pac-12 does not.

In 2018, the conference’s athletic directors voted, with the help of the conference office, to prohibit 5-7 teams from bowling even if spots were available.

Why would you willingly deprive your team of competition, your players of rewards, your coach of practices, and your conference of television exposure?

The explanation was based primarily on economic considerations. Bowls were likely to be money losers for 5-7 teams due to low ticket sales and high travel costs.

The Pac-12, however, is in its final season, and the conference is wisely considering a course correction that would allow any five-win team to participate.

A vote of the athletic directors is expected this week, according to a source familiar with the situation. (Approval requires only a simple majority. There is no minimum requirement in the event that some schools do not meet it.abstain.)

We anticipate that the rule will be changed. Why would any of the departing schools, for example, deny WSU the opportunity to go bowling?

However, if WSU and Cal finish 5-7, approval is only the first step. (With a win over Utah, Colorado could reach five wins.)

There may be enough six-win teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision to fill every vacancy in the 41 games.

Even if there are a few openings, other 5-7 teams may take precedence over the Bears or Cougars. (The order of selection is determined by academic achievement.)

However, voting to overturn a bad rule is never a bad idea, especially in the Pac-12 this season.

And, if given the opportunity, we believe the Bears and Cougars would like to extend their seasons.

To the projections for the bowl…

College Football Playoff/Rose Bowl

Team: Washington (11-0/8-0)

Comment: The only reason the CFP selection committee would place UW behind Florida State in the new rankings is a dislike for purple, coffee, or Nirvana, because the resumes aren’t comparable. That being said, it makes no difference. The Huskies will be in if they win their next two games.

New Year’s Six/Fiesta Bowl

Team: Oregon

Comment: If the Ducks lose Friday night, they will almost certainly not qualify for the Pac-12 championship game, and their resume is deteriorating (see: Utah). As a result,dropping out of the New Year’s Six is a distinct possibility.

Alamo Bowl

Team: Arizona

Comment:

With a win in Tempe, the Wildcats will most likely advance to the Alamo or the New Year’s Six (hello, Fiesta).If they lose in Tempe, they’re a good bet for Las Vegas, along with the basketball team, which plays on the same day as the bowl game.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: USC

Comment: Because of their brand value (on the high end) and loss total (on the low end), the Trojans have a wide range of postseason options. Furthermore, because of quarterback Caleb Williams’ uncertain status and the flexibility provided to Pac-12 bowl partners under the selection policy. To put it another way, we have no idea where the Trojans will land.

Holiday Bowl

Team: Oregon State

Comment: The Beavers are an excellent fit for the bowl, conference, and school. They’ve never been to the Holiday, which has no beef with the Beavers.

Sun Bowl

Team: Utah

Comment: The Utes’ final season in the Pac-12 could end in the same place as their inaugural season. On the final day of 2011, they defeated Georgia Tech 30-27 in the Sun Bowl.

LA Bowl

Team: UCLA

Comment: We expect UCLA to lose to Cal this week — the visitors will be desperate — and fall further down the bowl ladder. (The Holiday and Sun would take any option over them.) If UCLA wins, it will be eligible to play in the Las Vegas Bowl against a future Big Ten opponent.

Independence Bowl

Team: Cal

Comment: There’s a lot of uncertainty here, not only about Cal’s postseason chances, but also about the Pac-12’s ability to fill this spot with anyone. If losses mount at the top of the conference and only one team makes the New Year’s Six, everyone falls one rung and Shreveport will have options.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado

Comment: The Buffaloes are home for the holidays for the 14th time in the last 16 seasons, an incredible run of defeat for a program that was a regular postseason participant for two decades.

Non-qualifier

Team: Stanford

Comment: Stanford’s final Pac-12 game will be against Notre Dame, which is a member – in all sports except football – of the Cardinal’s new home, the ACC. On Saturday afternoon, Stanford Stadium will be strange.

Non-qualifier

Team: Washington State

Comment: Stanford’s final Pac-12 game will be against Notre Dame, which is a member – in all sports except football – of the Cardinal’s new home, the ACC. On Saturday afternoon, Stanford Stadium will be strange.

Ineligible

Team: Arizona State

Comment: There’s always next year… unless the NCAA, which has yet to impose sanctions for the COVID-era recruiting violations, bans ASU from the postseason in 2024.