A new programming deal shows why Netflix has all the leverage

Walter White, Skyler White, and Walter White Jr. from “Breaking Bad” are part of the AMC Collection on Netflix. Will anyone notice the “AMC” part?

Thought experiment: Let’s say you run a big TV network.*

And let’s say you decide to license some of your TV shows to Netflix.

What happens next?

First, you get a bunch of money, at something close to a 100% margin. You’ve already paid to make these shows, and (hopefully) made some money from them. Now Netflix is paying you again. Great!

What happens next is up for debate.

One possibility is that Netflix users watch your show, then realize that it came from your network, and then eventually make their way over to your network to watch more of your programming.

This is what happened years ago when Netflix started showing old episodes of AMC’s “Breaking Bad” while AMC was still airing new episodes of the show, and the ratings for “Breaking Bad” shot up. This is good for the long-term health of your network.

Another possibility is that Netflix users watch your show, have no idea it came from your network, and don’t care. They just think it’s a Netflix show because they saw it on Netflix. This is bad for the long-term health of your network.

The fact that both possibilities exist helps explain why big media companies have taken an on-off-on approach to licensing their stuff to Netflix.

At first, when Netflix was just building its streaming business, big media was happy to do those deals and thought Netflix was kind of a sucker. Then, once they realized Netflix was killing them, they pulled a lot of their stuff off Netflix and put it onto their own streaming services. Now they’ve started selling Netflix their good stuff, again, because they need the money.

Which brings us to Monday — the first day of a new licensing deal between AMC and Netflix. In addition to licensing shows that have been on Netflix for a long time, like “Breaking Bad” and “The Walking Dead,” AMC is now also selling the streaming rights to shows you may not have seen or even heard about, like “Anne Rice’s Interview With the Vampire” and “Monsieur Spade.” That’s all very standard.

What appears to be new is that Netflix has now agreed to group all of AMC’s shows together in a “collection.” So that, in theory, a “Better Call Saul” fan might learn that the show is from AMC, and that AMC also has “Gangs of London.” And you can see the first two seasons of that on Netflix, too.

AMC is psyched about this, and called it out on its earnings call earlier this summer, describing it as “an innovative deal to strategically curate and window prior seasons of 15 AMC branded shows” on Netflix.

I pay a lot of attention to Netflix, and I’ve never seen the streamer emphasize the network or studio something comes from. Unless it can call something a “Netflix Original,” which it does a lot (sometimes even when that’s a bit misleading). And I know that’s definitely something the TV and movie guys have asked for in the past.

So I was curious to see what this looked like, and … boy, was it hard to find. There’s nothing on my Netflix home screen — either on my phone or my TV — that indicates there’s an AMC “collection,” even though Netflix knows I’ve watched a lot of AMC shows, like “Breaking Bad,” before.

Because I knew it’s supposed to exist, I did type in “AMC” in the Netflix search bar and eventually got this page, which is indeed a curated collection of things made by AMC.

But what are the odds someone types “AMC” into a Netflix search bar? I’m guessing very, very low.

There has to be more to this, right? Surely Netflix will eventually give AMC a row on its powerful homepage — the kind it uses now, with labeling that’s either super generic (“Blockbuster Movies”) or embarrassingly detailed (“Because you watched ‘The Equalizer'”). At least for some users.

Then again, I’m a user who watches AMC shows, so you’d think they would get this to me quite soon, if not already. And it’s one thing to give AMC a row — quite another to put it somewhere where you can find it.

A Netflix rep declined to comment.

But until I hear or see otherwise, I’m finding it hard to believe Netflix will dedicate meaningful screen space to a single provider, even if it gives Netflix really good stuff like “Breaking Bad.”

Because Netflix now has the upper hand with the TV guys. Hard to see why they’d make any concessions, at all.

On the other hand, it looks like someone is indeed seeing the new AMC stuff. Three of the network’s shows — “Dark Wind,” “A Discovery of Witches,” and “Fear the Walking Dead” — are now on Netflix’s list of top 10 US TV shows.

*Yes, it’s a stressful job! In a declining industry! On the other hand, you get paid a ton of money.