A worsening kind of Russian warfare was on display in the US presidential election, but it’s a much bigger problem
Last month, US intel said Russia, China, and Iran could engage in disinformation tactics to prompt violence and unrest after the US 2024 election at unprecedented levels.
Russian disinformation and interference — hybrid warfare tactics — are on the rise and again showed up in the US presidential election, but this is a problem for more than just America.
Earlier this week, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Russia was conducting “an intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks across our allied territories, interfering directly in our democracies, sabotaging industry, and committing violence,” echoing long-standing concerns.
Russian tactics were on full display in the 2024 US presidential election. On Tuesday, various polling sites in five battleground states were the targets of hoax bomb threats from Russian email domains, the FBI said, and that was only part of Russian actions.
Georgia’s Secretary of State accused Moscow of being “up to mischief,” saying that “they don’t want us to have a smooth, fair and accurate election, and if they can get us to fight among ourselves, they can count that as a victory.”
The Russian embassy in Washington denied the accusations as “malicious slander” and said “Russia has not interfered and does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries,” including the US, but such activities are well documented.
Rising levels of interference
US intel concluded Russia sought to sabotage the Clinton campaign and destabilize the US election in 2016.
Experts and officials began to seriously take note of efforts by Russia and other US adversaries, such as China and Iran, to disrupt US politics in 2016, and it’s continually gotten worse.
“Undoubtedly we’ve seen an uptick in the scope and scale and, really, the kind of brazenness of Russian election interference in the information environment,” Doug Livermore, a member of the US special operations community and the director of engagements at the Irregular Warfare Initiative, told B-17.
Hybrid warfare covers a range of tactics, such as assassinations, espionage, cyberattacks, electoral interference, and disinformation, intended to deniably influence or disrupt national security and domestic affairs.
2016 saw the rising influence of Russian bot farms and mass disinformation while the 2020 election saw major efforts by Russia and other US foes to stoke violence and unrest, particularly as then-President Donald Trump contested the results and inspired the January 6th insurrection on the US Capitol.
A month prior to the 2024 election, the National Intelligence Council released a report warning that Russia, China, and Iran were better equipped to influence the election and undermine confidence in the results due to lessons from 2020; the council cited a range of tactics that could be used, including cyberattacks, artificial intelligence, and encouragement of electoral chaos and violence.
Russia, China, and Iran capitalized on the January 6 insurrection to denigrate the US political system, US intel said.
Then, on Monday, the head of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said disinformation was being spread by US adversaries “at a greater level than ever before.”
The efforts were designed to prompt distrust, fear, and misunderstanding in American voters and raise doubts over the integrity of US democracy. The 2024 presidential election was likely of particular interest to Russia, though, because of what was on the line: US support for Ukraine, of which Trump has been less supportive.
More than an American problem
This hybrid warfare is a broader problem for other Western countries, too. In recent months, Russia was accused of attempting to undermine Moldova’s election in favor of a pro-Moscow candidate, using tactics such as a vote-buying scheme, organizing transportation to get Russians to vote at Moldovan missions in other countries, and cyberattacks and fake bomb threats to out-of-country voting operations.
Russia was also recently accused of attempting to interfere in the Republic of Georgia’s parliamentary election, as well as elections in France, the UK, Germany, and others.
The big difference between how Russia engages in hybrid warfare in the US versus some European democracies comes down to the political systems that exist in those countries, Livermore said. In the US’ two party system, Russia’s focuses on creating discontent within a certain party or between the parties.
Moldova’s pro-EU incumbent president, Maia Sandu, won reelection despite Russian efforts to sway the election.
In European democracies, Russia’s focus often appears to be creating cracks within how the various parliamentary parties interact and form coalitions. Pro-European Union or NATO groups or candidates are often targeted, too, as was the case in Moldova’s election.
Across the board, Russia is opportunistic. “They don’t really care about the ideology of the organizations,” Livermore said, so long as it “advances the Kremlin’s interests.”
These interference efforts also undermine democracy more generally, working in favor of autocratic governments. In the run-up to the US presidential election, Chinese state media emphasized deep divisions, dysfunction, and fears of violence in the US.
The state-run Beijing Daily, for example, wrote: “the US election, once considered a highlight of the so-called ‘beacon of democracy,’ may now become the starting gun of ‘social unrest.'”
Livermore said such efforts allow Russia and China to indict democracy in favor of their authoritarian governments. Notably, experts have assessed Russia, China, and Iran are growing increasingly closer in efforts to challenge the US-led world order. North Korea, too, is right there with them.
Weakening the intended effect
Harris’ concession speech emphasized the need for a peaceful transition of power and accepting the election results.
After it Trump won the presidency, Vice President Kamala Harris conceded quickly. Her call for a peaceful transfer of power was echoed by President Joe Biden.
“For over 200 years, America has carried on the greatest experiment in self-government in the history of the world,” he said, “where the people, the people vote and choose their own leaders and they do it peacefully. And where in a democracy, the will of the people always prevails.”
Livermore said that because this election’s results, unlike in 2020, aren’t being contested, that could mean failure for any hybrid warfare tactics from US adversaries in the months ahead of Inauguration Day.
He said Russia, China, and Iran were likely “hoping that they were going to have a couple of months of chaos in the US,” but that is now much less likely.
US stability in the transition of power can be attributed to lessons learned from 2020, from local and federal governments to law enforcement, on how to maintain trust in the election process and suppress post-election violence.
