Biden is scrambling to change the war in Ukraine before Trump takes over
Ukrainian troops install anti-tank mines and other obstacles along the front lines near Chasiv Yar on October 30.
President Joe Biden has been scrambling to get Ukraine help ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House, pushing through a range of last-minute measures.
Over a period of only days, the US has given Ukraine new options for strikes into Russia, new controversial weapons, and increased financial support. These moves appear aimed at changing the war before Trump — who seems to want most to end the conflict as soon as possible — takes office.
Biden, whose administration has sent billions of dollars in weaponry to Ukraine, recently lifted long-held restrictions on Kyiv’s use of American-made longer-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia. It marked a significant policy shift for the US.
Ukraine launched its first cross-border strike with the American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, on Tuesday, causing a fire at a military facility in Russia’s western Bryansk region. It followed that strike with a volley of British-made Storm Shadow missiles the next day.
With just two months to go before the end of his term, Biden has also sought to rush additional aid to Ukraine. Over $6 billion in US security assistance to Kyiv remained from April’s foreign aid package at the start of the month.
A Ukrainian soldier from the Chervona Kalyna Brigade fires a Soviet-era artillery system in Ukraine’s Donetsk region on November 15.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said just last week that Biden “has committed to making sure that every dollar we have at our disposal will be pushed out the door” before Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
The Biden administration announced on Wednesday a new roughly $275 million military aid package that included the provision of anti-personnel land mines, controversial weapons banned in many countries due to the risks of civilian harm.
And during a press briefing that same day, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the Biden administration moved to forgive about $4.7 billion in US loans to Ukraine.
War analysts told B-17 that this US push could give Ukraine a much-needed battlefield boost and strengthen Kyiv’s defensive position, but it was needed earlier.
“Every decision’s been too late,” Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major general and strategist, told B-17. “They’ve been too terrified of escalation.”
Delayed measures
Biden during a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on September 26.
The latest measures follow a pattern of behavior in this war for the Biden administration, which has often met Ukraine’s calls for help with too little, too late. Examples include Abrams tanks, F-16 fighter jets, and long-range missiles.
“Had self-imposed restrictions been lifted sooner, Ukraine would have made greater advances against the Russians,” Mark Temnycky, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, explained to B-17, arguing that delays cost Ukraine battlefield momentum.
Ukrainian forces face a dire situation as they struggle to hold captured territory inside Russia’s Kursk region and prevent further losses in eastern Ukraine, where Russia is pressing on key strongholds. Extra support is greatly needed.
The removal of restrictions on ATACMS creates new strike opportunities, but anti-personnel land mines could be particularly impactful, Ben Friedman, the policy director at Defense Priorities, said, telling B-17 “it’s not too late” to make a difference.
Ukrainian officials, including President Zelenskyy, have repeatedly pressed the West to lift the ban on using Western missiles to strike Russia, arguing that the restrictions have hamstrung Kyiv’s ability to fight effectively.
Ukrainian troops install anti-tank mines and other obstacles along the front line near Chasiv Yar on October 30.
Ryan, the retired Australian major general, said there’s no “silver bullet” in this war. The ATACMS decision could have some battlefield impact depending on how the missiles are used, but the effect likely won’t be significant.
The missiles are, instead, part of a growing arsenal of weapons that Ukraine can now use to strike key military targets inside Russia, including Western-made cruise missiles and domestically produced long-range attack drones.
Ryan said that the anti-personnel landmines could be a useful addition to Ukraine’s defensive network, which includes sensors, drones, artillery, trenches, and deceptive practices. In particular, they could slow Russian advances, threatening dismounted infantry.
These measures could be critical as Kyiv looks to slow down Russian advances in the eastern regions. “The Ukrainians really need to stem this loss of territory, to slow down — if not stop — the Russian advances in the east,” he said.
A new administration is looming
Trump, a frequent critic and skeptic of the value of substantial US military aid to Ukraine, has repeatedly said he would end the war, though he hasn’t presented a concrete plan for doing so. The rough idea seems to be negotiation.
A Ukrainian soldier carries an artillery shell near Toretsk in the Donetsk region on November 10.
During a speech at an election night event at his resort in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, Trump actually said he would stop all wars.
He won’t take over the White House until January 20, but his associates have reportedly laid out ideas on how to end the conflict in Ukraine — one of which would involve creating an 800-mile demilitarized zone. Vice President-elect JD Vance discussed a similar idea in an interview with the “Shawn Ryan Show” in September.
Abishur Prakash, the founder of The Geopolitical Business, a strategy advisory firm in Toronto, Canada, said Ukraine’s long-range strikes inside Russia may have thrown a wrench into Trump’s reported plans to bring Putin to the negotiating table and freeze the conflict.
“Based on how Russia is responding, the war may be more ‘on fire’ by Inauguration Day,” he told B-17.
In response to the use of American and British missiles against Russia, the Russian military on Thursday struck the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with what Kyiv thought was an intercontinental ballistic missile but turned out to be an experimental new system.
Prakash said that considering the latest measures, Biden will leave office with Ukraine in a stronger position than it was in just a few months ago, with deep-strike capabilities, landmines, and potential approval for more kinds of weapons.
“He doesn’t want his legacy to be stained by the war in Europe,” he said of Biden, adding that these steps are “also about leaving Ukraine in a stronger standing than when the war began.”
