Biden’s last-minute missile moves for Ukraine are coming far too late, weakening their effect on the Russians

An Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missile fired during a joint military drill between the US and South Korea in October 2022.

US President Joe Biden is letting Ukraine strike inside Russia with its long-range missiles as he rushes aid to Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, but the move is coming so late that warfare experts don’t expect it to make a huge difference.

As the West debated, Russia was given time to prepare while Ukraine was left to fend off attacks with a hand tied behind its back. Even now, there are still some limitations.

George Barros, a Russia analyst at the US-based Insitute for the Study of War, told B-17: “It’s way too little, years late. It’s been a truism that Ukraine has needed the capability to strike the Russian rear for many years at this point.”

Targets moved

Ukraine used its MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), a Lockheed Martin weapon with a maximum range of around 190 miles, to hit Russia for the first time this month. It then followed with Storm Shadows. Damage was done, but this capability would have had more of an effect earlier in the war.

Matthew Savill, a former intelligence analyst at the UK Ministry of Defence and current military expert at the Royal United Services Institute, said that “many of the best targets— helicopters and glide-bomb-armed aircraft attacking Ukrainian cities and troops in the north or in Kursk— have largely moved to airbases outside the range of ATACMS.”

A Russian warplane carrying a glide bomb.

Ukraine’s military has prosecuted those key targets, like ammunition depots, airfields, and fighter-bombers, with its domestically produced long-range drones to curb Russian glide-bomb attacks, but missiles would have had a greater effect.

A senior Biden administration official told Politico in August that Russia had already moved 90% of the planes that launch glide bombs at Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure out of ATACMS range. And a central European defense official told Reuters this month that Russia had moved many of its air assets out of range of Western weapons.

Michael Bohnert, a warfare expert at the RAND Corporation, told B-17 that Biden’s change isn’t “too little, too late.” But “the delay will definitely limit the effectiveness of ATACMS strikes.”

“Had Ukraine been able to destroy several squadrons of Su-34 and Su-35 fighters early in the year, then Russia would have significantly less capacity to employ glide bombs against Ukrainian positions and civilians,” he said. Ukraine has been hit by thousands of guided glide bombs over the course of the year.

Earlier in the year, ISW had a map that identified nearly 250 potential ATACMS targets inside Russia. Many of those may no longer be viable targets.

A pattern of late aid

The US and other allies have been repeatedly criticized for slowness and hesitancy in giving Ukraine aid and permissions.

Soldiers in Ukraine have said that Western aid coming in “tidbits” means they can’t plan long-term, not knowing what would arrive and when. One American fighting in Ukraine told B-17, “It feels like everything that we’ve been getting has been either too late or it’s just enough to barely hold on.”

Ukraine usually gets what it needs eventually, but rarely when it really needs it. And the weaponry, like F-16s and advanced tanks, are often given in amounts so small that they can’t make a substantial difference. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said as much, matching analyst assessments.

A Ukrainian air force F-16 fighter jet flies in an undisclosed location in Ukraine. 

The head of NATO has also been critical of member countries, saying they could do more to help Ukraine. There’s been a hesitancy that comes from a fear of escalation.

Barros argued that the “Russian red lines are part of Russian reflexive control efforts that seek to trick the US and partners into accommodating Russian interests and counter Russian aggression in wars Russia started.”

He said that “Putin is not entitled to a veto over US or NATO policy on the basis that he can threaten us.”

Hitting Russia

Biden’s decision may be late, and the impact may be limited. But that doesn’t mean there won’t still be an effect.

Bohnert said that Ukraine can now use its Western weapons to try to “disrupt logistics and mobility of Russian and North Korean forces counterattacking in Kursk,” giving Ukraine’s forces more freedom of maneuver.

Ukraine advanced into Russia’s Kursk region in August, where its military is now fighting Russian and North Korean troops.

Savill explained that Biden’s decision “still leaves plenty of opportunities to strike military headquarters and ammunition or supply locations supporting Russian and North Korean troops, but this would be a reduced impact from when the Ukrainians first requested these weapons.”

A US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) firing a missile into the East Sea during a South Korea-US joint missile drill.

A rush to help Ukraine

Biden has boosted support to Ukraine ahead of Trump taking office by rushing aid out, loosening restrictions, and offering greater financial support.

Trump has not announced a plan but has been critical of US aid to Ukraine. Some, including in Ukraine, are optimistic that Trump could end the war. But Trump has also hinted at seeking a peace deal, something that could try and push Ukraine to do things it doesn’t want, like giving territory to Russia.

Savill said of Biden’s missile decision that “the impact may be more political, albeit with a narrowing window of opportunity.”

He said that Ukraine needs to “convince the incoming US administration that they are still worth backing — in President Trump’s transactional view, a ‘good investment.’ And they will want to convince him to link his and US credibility to a ‘winning’ outcome, not a major compromise that sees the US ‘lose.'”

Politically, “the signs are not positive on this front,” he said, as big Trump allies have criticized the ATACMS move, especially after Russia signaled its discontent with an unusual new missile strike.

And realistically, the decision delays on the Biden administration’s part have likely hindered Ukraine’s ability to show strength for political gain, Savill said. “It is unlikely that the Ukrainians can have a major impact in such a short period of time (under two months) until the next administration is formally in place, and with an uncertain but probably small stockpile of ATACMS.”