Democrats are beating Republicans in voter enthusiasm, even as swing-state polls show tight race

New Gallup polling shows more Democrats are enthusiastic about voting than Republicans. But it’s unclear how much that will translate to votes.

With just five days to go until Election Day, Democrats appear to have a significant advantage over Republicans when it comes to voter enthusiasm.

According to new polling from Gallup, 77% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters say they’re more enthusiastic about voting than usual, versus 67% of Republicans and GOP-leaning voters who say the same.

That’s a slightly higher level of enthusiasm for Democrats than they had just before the 2008 election, when that same poll found that 76% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters were more enthusiastic than usual about voting. Barack Obama would go on to win that year in an Electoral College landslide.

But the enthusiasm gap has narrowed since August, when Democrats had a 15-point advantage over Republicans.

Enthusiasm does not necessarily equal votes. Just before the 2012 election, Republicans boasted a 12-point enthusiasm advantage over Democrats, but Mitt Romney still lost to Obama.

And the latest polling in key battleground states shows that the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains close.

A new Washington Post poll released on Thursday from Michigan — a crucial Midwestern swing state where the war in Gaza has loomed especially large — shows Trump with a slight lead over Harris among registered votes, but Harris with a slight lead over Trump among likely voters.

In Pennsylvania, several polls have shown Harris and Trump in what is essentially a tied race. And in Wisconsin, Harris has generally maintained a slight lead in averages of recent polls.

Harris’s simplest path to victory would be to win those three states plus Nebraska’s 2nd district, giving her a 270-vote Electoral College majority.

If she can’t pull that off, she’ll have to win one or more of the “Sun Belt” states, which include Arizona and Nevada in the Southwest along with North Carolina and Georgia in the Southeast.

That’s where things get tougher.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls, Trump leads in three of those states, boasting a 2-point lead in Arizona, a 1.8-point lead in Georgia, and a 1-point lead in North Carolina. In Nevada, Harris is running essentially even with Trump.

Though a better measure than voter enthusiasm, polling also has its pitfalls. In both 2016 and 2020, polls of the presidential race were off by a handful of points.

One thing is clear: The race remains extremely close, and either candidate could pull it off.