Elon Musk explains his 80/20 prediction for what AI means for humans

Elon Musk said robots will outnumber humans in about 30 years.

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence could lead to one of two futures, according to Elon Musk.

Earlier this week, the Tesla CEO appeared on the “All In” podcast where he spoke about a future of humanoid robots and AI tools that “can do everything we can do, but better.” As AI improves each day, Musk said it’s more likely to have a positive effect on the world — but there’s still a 20% risk of “human annihilation.”

“The good future of AI is one of immense prosperity where there’s an age of abundance, no shortage of goods and services, and everyone can have everything they want,” Musk said.

He added that there was about an 80% chance of that future coming to fruition as the tech industry attempts to integrate AI into our daily lives.

Tesla is working on its own humanoid robot called Optimus, which is still in development. Musk said he believes these “general purpose” robots will one day be capable of landscaping, babysitting, or walking your dog for you and cost around $20,000.

In a world where any number of robots can do the jobs humans don’t want to, “there’s no actual limit to the size of the economy,” he said.

However, Musk predicted that autonomous cars and helpful robots have a 20% chance of causing a “crisis of meaning” as they perform menial tasks faster and better than humans.

Although he joked about humanity’s annihilation, Musk said the bigger challenge of AI is people not knowing what to do with themselves anymore.

Whether they decide to conquer the world or help humans, Musk predicted that the number of robots would “vastly exceed the number of humans” in 30 years’ time. He said that it would probably take five or six years for Optimus robots to reach one million production units a year — though he also said he’s been known to be overly optimistic about timelines.

In the meantime, Musk said he knows more and more people who seem to be enjoying their life after retirement and exiting the workforce.

But don’t expect Musk, who is 53, to stop working anytime soon.

He is now directly involved in at least 6 companies, his latest being xAI, an AI startup that’s competing against OpenAI.

And if Trump ends up returning to office, the Tesla CEO has said he’d be willing to serve as an advisor to a government efficiency commission, a government cost-saving effort the former president recently outlined after Musk proposed the idea to him.