Gold could jump 11% next year as central banks ramp up their buying spree, Goldman Sachs economist says

The price of gold could hit $3,000 an ounce next year as central bankers continue to scoop up the precious metal, Samantha Dart, the co-head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said.

The price of gold traded around $2,698 an ounce early Friday, with Dart’s forecast implying 11% upside. That increase will be fueled primarily by central bank buying, she said, with central banks around the world already having scaled their purchases of gold five-fold compared to their pre-2022 average.

Last quarter, central bank purchases of gold more than doubled on a year-over-year basis to 186 tons, according to data from the World Gold Council. Central bankers have snapped up 694 tons of gold since the start of the year, on par with last year’s levels, the group said in an October report.

“It’s been the dominant driver of where gold moves since 2022,” Dart added, speaking to Bloomberg on Thursday. “The moment that Russian financial assets were blocked, then that sparks a lot of concern from a lot of emerging markets — and China in particular — that, who knows, this might happen to them one day. So central bank buying has stepped up significantly.”

The rapid pace of gold buying will likely continue among emerging markets economies next year, as many of those countrues still have “very low” reserves of gold compared to developed economies, Dart said.

Gold prices could also be supported through ETF buying, she said, noting that many traders were interested in safe-haven assets amid higher economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

The world’s total gold demand hit 1,313 tons in the third quarter, representing a record value of over $100 billion, World Gold Council data shows. Gold investment demand, meanwhile, more than doubled on a year-over-year basis last quarter, reaching 364 tons.

“Safe haven is just the cherry on top,” Dart said. “You have a lot of policy uncertainty ahead. Clients have been very focused on, ‘will there be a tariff escalation scenario?’ And that can bring uncertainty, and that is what usually triggers higher positioning.”

Gold prices have seen a steep rally so far this year, with the precious metal trading 30% higher from levels in January.

Other Wall Street forecasters have their eye on record high prices for gold next year.

In April, Citi predicted gold prices could hit $3,000 by mid-2025, citing “geopolitical heat” and demand for risk-off assets.

Jeffrey Christian, a longtime commodities analyst and the founder of CPM Group, said gold could hit a cyclical peak by the end of the next year, thanks to uncertainty on the macroeconomic front.