How the cost of housing is expected to change under Trump or Harris

Election Day is around the corner and some Americans are already casting their ballots in early voting. For many, affordable housing is a top concern.

In the third of B-17’s five-part series for the final stretch before the election, B-17 is looking at the ways each candidate and their associated policies will impact the price of housing. (Read part 1 about investments, and part 2 about costs.)

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have both pledged to address high prices by boosting the supply of homes. They’ve also floated plans to increase affordable housing while offering different viewpoints on home construction in rural and urban areas.

Detailed below are four elements of the housing-price equation, and what both the Harris and Trump camps have either proposed or already done.

Increasing housing supply

Harris has said she will work with the private sector and homebuilders to construct 3 million more homes by the end of her first term. She also plans to create a $40 billion federal innovation fund that encourages local governments to build housing.

This is in response to an ongoing US housing shortage. The US was short about 4.5 million homes in 2022, a recent Zillow report found. And that same year the number of US families increased by 1.8 million, but just 1.4 million housing units were built.

The Democratic candidate also said she plans to expand the existing low-income housing tax credit, which incentivizes the rehabilitation or building of housing targeted at lower-income households.

“Harris is trying to increase the supply of townhomes, duplexes, and condos, so that people can have an easier step onto the housing ladder than what they currently have,” Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at the real estate firm Redfin, told B-17.

Fairweather added that Trump has talked a little bit about cutting red tape, referring to building permits and zoning laws that prevent new housing developments, but that he hasn’t provided details. He also said he would designate more federal land for housing.

Some experts have concerns that Trump’s high tariff proposals on materials like steel would make it harder to build housing. A report published in May from the nonpartisan think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics predicts they will make construction more expensive. High construction costs have been a major factor in the US’ underbuilding of homes.

On the campaign trail, the former president has remarked that the housing supply will improve once millions of people are deported from the country. Builders have argued that such an effort would only drive up costs, as immigrant labor makes up a vital part of the construction industry.

Trump has also said he would ban mortgages for undocumented immigrants to decrease demand on the housing market. Experts have said this group makes up a small portion of the US mortgage market.

First-time homebuyer assistance

Harris has proposed offering up to $25,000 in down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers who have paid their rent on time for at least two years.

Harris has also said she would offer tax incentives to homebuilders who prioritize “starter homes.” Experts have said Harris’ down-payment assistance plan would boost overall home prices because it would increase demand for mortgages without solving supply issues.

Although Trump has said that he would offer tax incentives to first-time homebuyers, his campaign has not released details about the amount of aid.

As president, Trump proposed major cuts to the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development’s budget, including slashing housing assistance and community development aid.

“Qualifying income for a household to be able to afford the typical price of a home right now is six figures,” Jessica Lautz, the deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, said. “That can be really impossible to imagine for someone who is a school teacher.”

Urban vs. rural housing

In dense urban areas, Harris hopes her plan can usher in new construction by removing some zoning restrictions that prevent multifamily townhomes, condos, and duplexes from being built.

Harris has emphasized her desire to expand housing in rural America in recent weeks. In a memo released in September, she said her plan would include $7.2 billion in infrastructure investments and potentially boost economic growth.

While in the White House, Trump opposed the construction of high-density housing in single-family zoned areas, arguing that he would “save” the suburbs from the Democratic Party. It’s unclear if Trump still wants to pursue similar policies.

While in office in 2017, Trump proposed a budget for the 2018 fiscal year that would have significantly cut rural housing subsidies. The bulk of these proposals never came to fruition.

Action against big landlords

Harris has said she will take action against “corporate landlords,” and call on Congress to remove tax benefits from investors who acquire 50 or more single-family rental homes. Her planned investment in a federal innovation fund would also incentivize cities to build more rental options.

This is in response to nearly half of America’s renters in 2024 being considered “cost-burdened,” meaning at least 30% of their income goes to housing. In some cities, higher rents are also outpacing wages.

While Trump has called for the construction of more housing — which would include rental units and homes — he has not provided details about how his plan would specifically impact renters. While in office, Trump implemented a temporary eviction moratorium to keep Americans housed during the pandemic.