How to protect yourself from a recession

Welcome back! A product manager has some advice for junior employees: Be the dumbest person in the room. Asking questions and listening rather than trying to tout your knowledge is the best bet.

This will be my last edition for a bit, as I’ll be on parental leave until May. But don’t sweat it! You’re in the very capable hands of my UK colleague Hallam Bullock while I am out. The only thing you’ll need to change is to imagine a posh British accent while you’re reading it.

In today’s big story, people are getting worried about a potential recession. Here’s how to protect yourself.

What’s on deck

Markets: Find out what the PE giants are paying.

Tech: Everyone wants to get rid of low performers, but doing so might not be as beneficial as you think.

Business: Older Americans told us how they’ve traded in their white collars for blue ones to make ends meet.

But first, protect ya neck.

The big story

Don’t let the recession get you down

The economy might take a dive, but you don’t have to let it take you down with it.

After a few months of everyone being excited about what the future could hold for the US economy, things have taken a noticeable turn. Scary words like “recession” and “stagflation” are getting thrown around, and the only thing that seems certain under the current administration is more uncertainty.

It’s the kind of environment that can make your head spin. Lucky for you, we turned to the experts. B-17 got advice from financial planners about what you can do to prepare for the worst. (And no, they’re not just telling you to put your money in bonds.)

In fact, the best advice is more emotional than financial: Don’t panic. When times get tough, people tend to want to react. But the reality is that markets move quickly, especially these days, and you don’t want to get caught selling off assets amid what could just be a mini downturn.

Besides, if the economy does go south, you might be better off leaning into the chaos instead of pulling away. I am not a financial advisor, so don’t take this as advice, but history has proven that those who were willing to buy the dips usually benefited in the long run.

But how did we get here in the first place?

Just a few months ago, things seemed ready to take off. The S&P 500 was setting record highs. Bankers were licking their chops at the potential deal flow. Everyone was ready to rock.

The market has been singing a different tune for the past few weeks.

Plenty of people are pointing their fingers at tariffs. Trump’s will-he-won’t-he trade plan has become a guessing game investors don’t seem interested in playing anymore.

However, B-17 said that’s not the only thing derailing stocks. The deregulation expected under Trump and his embrace of crypto haven’t led to boons in industries just yet.

The key is that last bit: just yet. The administration has been in place for less than two months. A lot could still shake out. Investors’ willingness to wait, though, remains to be seen.

3 things in marketing

1. Private equity paydays. To get a pulse on how much people make in PE, B-17 combed through job listings and H-1B visa data for a dozen firms, including Blackstone, Apollo, and KKR. The good news: Salaries are steep, and an Odyssey Search Partners survey found bonuses can lead bigwigs to expect compensation upward of $1 million a year. The bad news: Pay growth has generally stabilized.
2. This tax season, don’t bring the IRS to your door. While the IRS will often automatically correct small errors and typos, glaring mistakes can result in costly penalties. Avoid these four common IRS audit triggers for a smoother tax filing season.
3. The US government now has a bitcoin reserve. President Trump recently signed an executive order establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve, but, Peter Kafka writes, it’s unclear what it’s supposed to do and why the US should have one. The US already owns a bunch of bitcoin, and many crypto fans thought the Trump plan would be to go out and buy more. That doesn’t appear to be the case now.

3 things in tech

1. How parts of the US will track abortion pills. Last May, Louisiana reclassified misoprostol and mifepristone — both commonly used to induce abortions — as “controlled substances,” allowing prescriptions to be monitored. This designation is typically applied to drugs with a risk of abuse. Tech companies, like Bamboo Health, can make big money running states’ prescription monitoring databases. B-17 found that, while designed to investigate doctors for wrongdoing, these programs can have wider implications for clinicians and their patients.
2. Agentic AI is coming to the military. Scale AI, the $13.8 billion startup helmed by Alexandr Wang, secured a DOD contract to integrate AI agents into military decision-making. The contract is the first of its kind and cements the partnership between tech and the military.
3. Actually, you need those low performers. Big Tech companies like Meta and Microsoft have instituted brutal performance-based cuts this year, making 2025 the de facto year of the low performer. But in reality, that management tactic hurts business in the long run. An initial surge in productivity is offset by loss of quality, morale, and, ultimately, profitability.

3 things in business

1. Another twist in the Baldoni-Lively saga. Three days before Justin Baldoni sued The New York Times, someone paid $120 to boost content about an emoji that was a key part of Baldoni’s suit. The payment’s timing suggests the client knew just how important that emoji would become before it was publicly revealed in the filing.
2. Federal workers clap back (subtly). Snarky emails, spoon emojis, and pronouns. These are some of the ways federal workers are subtly protesting workforce cuts and demands from President Trump, Elon Musk, and DOGE while also keeping their jobs. They told B-17 they’ve found comfort in banding together with their colleagues along the way.
3. Some older Americans turn to blue-collar jobs. Side hustles and blue-collar work have kept some former white-collar professionals afloat as they navigate the job market. B-17 heard from dozens of these older Americans who’ve struggled with landing roles after a layoff. Lower pay, a need for specialized qualifications, and résumé dilemmas are among the challenges.