Jamie Dimon says the US is still at risk of a fate worse than recession
Jamie Dimon.
The CEO of America’s largest bank says he’s preparing for a full range of economic scenarios, including one that economists think is an outcome worse than a recession.
Jamie Dimon told Bloomberg on Thursday that he believed stagflation — a dire combination of high inflation and low growth — was still on the table for the US economy.
“I think there’s a chance you’ll have stagflation,” Dimon said, adding that he’s not predicting such a scenario necessarily but that he wants to be prepared.
“I think global fiscal deficits are inflationary. I think the remilitarization of the world is inflationary. The restructuring of trade is inflationary,” he said, adding that the sharp decline in oil prices could be a deflationary offset.
The JPMorgan boss also said he thought the Federal Reserve was right to hold rates steady, given the risks of inflation from loosening monetary policy too early. The US central bank has kept interest rates unchanged this year, despite calls from President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs.
Dimon’s latest economic warnings add to his other downbeat prognostications about the economy in recent weeks, even as many top banks and commentators adjust their outlooks following the recent progress on US-China trade negotiations.
He said last week that a recession was still on the table and predicted that tariff-related volatility would continue to pressure markets.
“I think it’s a mistake to think we can go through all the things we’re going through and the volatility itself will come down,” he said.
Dimon struck a cautious tone at this week’s JPMorgan investor day as well, saying that markets had become much too complacent in the face of trade wars and other mounting geopolitical risks.
On Thursday, Dimon also praised China. While he described himself as a “full-throated, red-blooded American patriot capitalist,” the banking chief said he recognized the “enormous job” China has done to help its people.
