JD Vance says Trump has a 60% chance of winning, siding with betting markets

Sen. JD Vance offered an unusually frank assessment of his ticket’s odds of winning the 2024 election — while arguing that voters “shouldn’t trust” polls.

Sen. JD Vance said this week that he and former President Donald Trump have a 60% chance of winning the 2024 election.

In an appearance on comedian Theo Von’s podcast, “This Past Weekend,” released on Tuesday, the Ohio senator and GOP vice presidential nominee was shown a projection from the betting market website Kalshi that gave Trump just a 57% chance of winning.

“Honestly, I think that chart’s about right,” Vance said. “I think that we’ve probably got about a 60% chance of winning.”

It’s a relatively rare statement for someone on a presidential ticket to make.

While campaigns may choose to project confidence about their chances, they usually do not publicly offer a precise assessment of their odds. It’s also a contrast to Vice President Kamala Harris, who has described her campaign as the “underdog” since she entered the race in July.

Vance also said that voters “shouldn’t trust” polls no matter who they favor, arguing that Harris supporters are more likely to respond to polling.

“If you’re a Democrat, especially if you’re a higher education level Democrat, you’re much more willing to answer pollster questions,” Vance said. “So it’s very hard to get an accurate sample.”

“You can’t trust this stuff,” Vance said of polls. “You got to assume that you just got to work your ass off.”

While public polling has shown the race to be a dead heat, betting markets have favored Trump since the beginning of October.

Von argued during the appearance that in a “capitalistic society,” election betting represents a “good tracker” for understanding how the election may go. “It’s people putting their money down,” Von said. “It’s people saying ‘This is what I think,’ right? With my money.”

But there are concerns that betting market odds are subject to the influence of a small group of wealthy users. The Wall Street Journal reported that a group of four accounts, all possibly owned by the same entity, have bet a combined $30 million that Trump will win.

As of Wednesday morning, Kalshi’s betting market showed Trump with a 60% chance of winning, while Polymarket showed a 64% chance of a Trump victory.