New satellite images show the Russians packing up their stuff amid a flurry of activity at a key airbase in Syria

The heavy equipment is missing in this December 17 image. 

Newly captured satellite imagery seems to show the Russians moving military equipment out of a strategic airbase in Syria as its long-standing presence in the country remains in limbo.

The images, captured by BlackSky and obtained by B-17, show new activity at the Hmeimim Air Base over the past few days and suggest that Russia is scaling down its military footprint in Syria following the shocking collapse of the Assad regime earlier this month.

An intelligence analyst familiar with the satellite imagery identified four Russian Il-76 strategic cargo planes — one of which is being loaded up with equipment — and a Yak-40 regional jet parked on the eastern flight line at Hmeimim on Sunday. Four S-400 surface-to-air missile launchers can be seen on the southern end of the apron.

The analyst also spotted three An-32 transport aircraft parked in the northwest corner of the airbase, a heavy equipment staging area on the western apron, and a disassembled Ka-52 attack helicopter being prepared for transport.

An overview of Hmeimim Air Base on December 15.

An image captured on Tuesday shows that much of the heavy equipment, including three of the S-400 launchers, is now missing from the base. One of the AN-32s is also gone, while a single AN-124 heavy transport aircraft is present.

The aircraft and equipment spotted in images on Sunday and Tuesday differ slightly from what was seen in satellite imagery last week. The analyst said three Il-76s, three An-32s, one Yak-40, and two S-400 launchers were present at the base on Friday. Two An-124s, one being loaded with cargo, could also be seen there.

The recent developments at Hmeimim appear to highlight a significant uptick in activity at the base compared to a week ago, just two days after rebel forces captured Damascus and ousted Syria’s longtime dictator, Bashar Assad.

There is no mass gathering of heavy equipment visible on December 10

The fall of the regime brought new uncertainty for Russia’s military footprint at Hmeimim and Tartus, a nearby naval facility on the Mediterranean Sea that has been emptied of warships.

Although there is evidence of Russia withdrawing some of its assets from Syria, it remains unclear at this time to what extent it may be pulling back and whether it is permanent or temporary. While some assets may be returning to Russia, others may simply be being relocated to nearby Tartus. Regardless, a drawdown of sorts appears to be underway.

Russia long supported Assad in Syria’s devastating civil war, but the rebels now have the upper hand; they control the province where Hmeimim and Tartus are located. The Kremlin is said to be engaging in efforts to ensure the security of its bases with the new Syrian leadership.

The European Union’s top diplomat said on Monday that some of the bloc’s foreign ministers believe Russia’s expulsion from Syria should be a condition for the country’s new leadership because Moscow uses its bases there to facilitate activities to the south and in Africa.

“This is definitely of the worry of European security as well,” Kaja Kallas, the high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy, told reporters this week. “We will raise this issue with the leadership when we have the meetings on different levels.”

A Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet takes off at Hmeimim in September 2019.

The US and Ukraine have both confirmed the movement of Russian forces out of Syria, though the two governments have provided varying assessments on the scale of the withdrawal.

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said Monday that Russia was pulling troops from locations around Syria and consolidating them at Hmeimim and Tartus, “control over which the Kremlin seeks and hopes to maintain.”

The HUR said that Moscow was using transport aircraft, including the Il-76 and An-124, to shuttle troops, weapons, and military equipment from Syria to Russia. Kyiv’s aircraft identification is consistent with the planes spotted in satellite imagery of Hmeimim, although B-17 could not independently confirm the reported activity.

The Kremlin relies heavily on Hmeimim and Tartus to project power across the region. Hmeimim is used to move military forces in and out of Africa, while Tartus is Russia’s main naval base overseas and provides the country with crucial access to a warm-water port. Losing access to both these bases, which are strategically valuable, would be a major setback for Moscow.