NFC playoff picture: Eagles still No. 1, but don’t rule out a 49ers ascension to top seed
Philadelphia improved to 9-1 with win over the Chiefs, but don’t look as imposing as a year ago
First, there’s that pesky Thanksgiving night game in Seattle to contend with, but it’s almost here.
On December 3, the 49ers will face the Eagles. The rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game, which ended when quarterback Brock Purdy’s right elbow structure was rearranged on a sack by Haason Reddick with 7:03 remaining in the first quarter and Philadelphia leading 7-0.
Before the 49ers arrive, the Eagles will face a talented but underachieving Buffalo team that also has its sights set on a Super Bowl.
Philadelphia came back from a 10-point deficit to defeat Kansas City 21-17 on Monday night, with Jalen Hurts hitting a 41-yard sideline streak to DeVonta Smith and the Chiefs’ Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropping a rainbow by Patrick Mahomes with 1:50 remaining.
Nonetheless, neither Hurts nor the Eagles are performing at the same level that they did a year ago when they won the top seed with a 14-3 record. They are still working out issues with two new coordinators, as Shane Steichen (offense) and Jonathan Gannon (defense) both left for head coaching jobs in Indianapolis and Arizona, respectively.
“It wasn’t pleasant. “There were a lot of ugly moments, but they just kept fighting and staying together,” said Philadelphia coach Nick Sirianni. “Everyone simply stayed together.” The defense continued to make plays while waiting for the offense to make one, which we did in a critical situation.”
And, despite being a game behind Detroit and two behind Philadelphia, the 49ers are playing at a higher level. Don’t rule out the possibility of the 49ers eventually drawing even in terms of record, making their Philadelphia matchup exactly what they hoped for all along — a chance to play in the postseason at home.
The NFC’s alignment heading into Week 12 is as follows:
In playoff contention
- Philadelphia (9-1): On the plus side, the Eagles have won nine of their last ten games despite not hitting on all cylinders. That means that if they improve in the final seven games, they could end up exactly where they started a year ago, hosting the NFC Championship Game and being the favorite to return to the Super Bowl.
Next three weeks: at Buffalo (6-5), at San Francisco (7-3), and at Dallas (7-3).
- Detroit (8-2): The Lions won back-to-back games they could have lost, defeating the Los Angeles Chargers 41-38 and then beating the Bears 31-26 despite turning the ball over four times. However, they are on track to win the division and make their first playoff appearance since 2016.
The next three weeks include games against Green Bay (4-6), New Orleans (5-5), and Chicago (3-8).
3: San Francisco 49ers (7-3): When Deebo Samuel is your sixth most important offensive player (after Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk), finishing fourth in scoring (27.9 points per game) is a bit of a letdown.
The next three weeks are as follows: at Seattle (6-4), at Philadelphia (9-1), and at Seattle (6-4).
- New Orleans (5-5): The Saints and Derek Carr took a week off to figure out what they want to be when they grow up. They’re a game ahead in a division that a 9-8 record could win.
The following three weeks: at Atlanta (4-6), at Detroit (8-2), and at Carolina (1-9)
- Dallas (7-3): It’s almost unnoticed because of the Week 5 flop against the 49ers, but Dak Prescott’s passing numbers are nearly as good as Brock Purdy’s. Micah Parsons is on pace for 17 sacks and consideration for Defensive Player of the Year.
The next three weeks include games against Washington (4-6), Seattle (6-4), and Philadelphia (9-1).
- Seattle (6-4): Based on the next three games, last year’s playoff surprise could be eliminated. Geno Smith’s elbow is a source of concern, and he hasn’t been the same player he was a year ago.
Next three weeks: at Dallas (7-3), at San Francisco (7-3)
- Minnesota (6-5): Quarterback Joshua Dobbs has been mentioned as a possible Comeback Player of the Year candidate. Amazing story, but what exactly has he returned from? But I thought the same thing about Geno Smith last year, and he won.
Next three weeks: at Chicago (3-8), at home (5-6)
Still on the lookout
- Green Bay (4-6): Since trading Davante Adams to the Raiders, the Packers have been looking for a No. 1 receiver. It’s one of the factors impeding quarterback Jordan Love, who may or may not be re-signed as the starter after the final seven games.
The next three weeks include games against Detroit (8-2), Kansas City (7-3), and the New York Giants (3-8).
- Los Angeles Rams (4-6): Sean McVay and company are 2-0 against Seattle and 2-6 against the rest of the league. Cooper Kupp has an ankle sprain and has only 24 receptions for 375 yards and one touchdown through six games.
The following three weeks: at Arizona (2-9), at Cleveland (7-3), and at Baltimore (8-3)
- Atlanta (4-6): Arthur Smith switches back to Desmond Ridder. The Falcons will use the remainder of the season to determine whether their next quarterback will be a free agent or drafted in 2024.
The next three weeks include games against New Orleans (5-5), the New York Jets (4-6), and Tampa Bay (4-6).
- Tampa Bay (4-6): After seeing the Bucs in action against the 49ers, they’re a legitimate threat in a bad division and have already beaten the Saints handily in Week 4 in New Orleans.
The following three weeks: at Indianapolis (5-5), at Carolina (1-9), and at Atlanta (4-6).
ANALYSIS OF THE AFC
The Chiefs’ schedule is favorable enough for them to reclaim the top seed, but they made a major mistake in how they assembled their team.
The belief that Mahomes can turn any ragtag group of receivers into a productive unit has been a source of contention all season, and it was never more evident than when Valdes-Scantling dropped a potential game-winning 51-yard touchdown pass in the final minute.
According to ESPN, Valdes-Scantling has six drops on throws of 30 yards or more and 26 total drops.
Postseason seeding as of now
- Baltimore (8-3), 2. Kansas City (7-3), 3. Jacksonville (7-3), 4. Miami (7-3), 5. Cleveland (7-3), 6. Houston (6-4), 7. Pittsburgh (6-4).
Outside looking in
- Buffalo (6-5), 9. Indianapolis (5-5), 10. Denver (5-5), 11. Las Vegas (5-6)
