North Korea likes to stir up trouble around US elections, and this time around, it’s been at it with missiles

Data has shown that North Korea’s provocations spike close to or after US elections.

North Korea fired off multiple short-range ballistic missiles just hours before Election Day in the US and just a few days after an intercontinental ballistic missile launch.

Research has shown that Pyongyang typically engages in provocations, such as displays of its prohibited missile program, around US elections, stirring up a certain degree of trouble. The latest provocations come as North Korea draws closer to Russia and amid confirmations that thousands of North Korean troops are aiding Russia in its war against Ukraine.

On Tuesday, North Korea launched several ballistic missiles toward the East Sea/Sea of Japan, South Korea’s military said. Japan also confirmed the launch, with its defense ministry saying the missiles were believed to have landed in the sea shortly after launch.

The launch came on the heels of a test of North Korea’s newest intercontinental ballistic missile believed to be capable of striking the US mainland. The missile, identified as the Hwasong-19, is a massive solid-fueled missile.

The ICBM launch, which was directly overseen by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, was met by a joint US-South Korean-Japanese drill, which included the involvement of a US B-1B supersonic bomber. The exercise drew criticism from Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, who accused the US and its allies of engaging in aggressive and dangerous actions toward North Korea.

North Korea’s missile launches didn’t necessarily come as a surprise to the US and South Korea, the latter of which said that Pyongyang was likely to engage in provocative military displays ahead of the US election.

North Korea fired multiple ballistic missiles on Tuesday, South Korea and Japan said.

Past Korea research has suggested that North Korea prioritizes such showcases around pivotal moments for Washington, such as presidential elections.

A report by Victor Cha, a leading Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the former director for Asian Affairs on the White House’s National Security Council, shows patterns in North Korean behavior around US elections.

Over the course of 32 elections since 1956, the report found that the provocation window has narrowed over time — meaning “North Korean provocations have clustered increasingly closer to US presidential and congressional midterm elections.” That trend has been especially evident, the 2020 report said, in the last few elections.

Cha wrote that “the average window for a North Korean provocation bracketed around all US national elections (i.e., before or after),” under Kim Jong Un, is 4.5 weeks. That is a much tighter window than the world saw during the rule of his predecessors.

Notably, these numbers don’t include the 2018 midterm election, “where there was a prolonged and anomalous period of no provocations as a result of the Trump-Kim Singapore summit,” the CSIS Beyond the Parallel report said. During former President Donald Trump’s first term, his priorities in US-North Korean relations were focused on negotiations and denuclearization, which ultimately failed after a 2019 summit in Vietnam.

There have been three instances where North Korea has engaged in a provocation on the same day as an election: the 1978 midterm and the 1980 and 1996 presidential elections.

The CSIS study also notes that there could be “multiple causes,” including scientific, military, and domestic reasons, for North Korea’s timing of its launches and military actions, but the clustering is still significant and aligns with assessments from the US and its allies.

North Korea’s nuclear program is a major concern for South Korea. Earlier this year, North Korea formally removed language related to “peaceful unification” of the two Koreas in government doctrine.

North Korea’s missile launches come on the heels of confirmation that it has sent approximately 10,000 troops to Russia to aid Moscow’s forces in its war in Ukraine. The US confirmed the presence of the troops late last month after South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence agencies reported the soldiers were training at Russian military bases.

Pyongyang’s decision to send troops is part of a strengthening partnership between North Korea and Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim held several high-profile meetings on North Korean military assistance to Russia, which included an arms deal, and North Korean ammunition, including artillery ammo and missiles, has been documented in use in the war in Ukraine.

Experts remain concerned about what North Korea could be receiving in return for its support for Russia, which some American officials and analysts have suspected could be advanced military technology for satellites and nuclear submarines, as well as support for Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programs.