Nvidia earnings could spark a nearly $300 billion swing in the stock, Goldman says

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang displaying products onstage during the annual Nvidia GTC artificial-intelligence conference at SAP Center in San Jose, California, in March.

Nvidia stock could see a massive $298 billion swing in market value after it reports its second-quarter earnings results on Wednesday.

That estimate is based on recent options-pricing data, according to a Monday note from Goldman Sachs’ trading desk.

A swing of that size in market value in either direction would equate to a more than 9% move in the $3.17 trillion chipmaker’s stock price.

Nvidia holds the record for the biggest one-day market-value swing, at $330 billion, which occurred in late July as the stock rebounded from a painful weekslong decline.

According to the bank, if the company can report a solid quarter of growth with even stronger forward guidance, it could catch the stock market by surprise and lead to a big move.

“Can you imagine if NVDA beats expectations on Wednesday?” Goldman Sachs’ trading desk, led by its managing director Scott Rubner, asked.

“Info tech was net sold for the 4th straight week (13 of the last 16) and saw the largest net selling in 2 months as the sector was net sold in every region, driven by both long and short sales,” Rubner said. “The prime book is now under-weight Info Tech vs. the MSCI World Index by -9.7% – at the lowest level on our record.”

In other words, stock-market positioning suggests that most investors could be caught off guard if Nvidia rises after its earnings results on Wednesday.

“The bar for Nvidia this earnings season is a lot lower than it has been in recent quarters given fundamental selling in tech,” Rubner said.

Nvidia is the second-largest company in the S&P 500, with a weight of about 6.5%, so its results could have a big impact on the broader market.

In fact, Steve Sosnick, an Interactive Brokers strategist, highlighted just how integral Nvidia is to the rest of the market.

In a note on Tuesday, Sosnick analyzed the 25 most active trades on the Interactive Brokers platform, and more than 70% of them had a connection to Nvidia.

The top spot belongs to Nvidia, followed by Tesla, which is a key customer of the chip firm. AMD, Nvidia’s closest competitor, is No. 3, and No. 4 is a semiconductor exchange-traded fund.

Overall, of the 25 most active trades at Interactive Brokers, Nvidia was connected to 18 names, Sosnick said.

“We’ve gotten quite used to seeing NVDA atop the leaderboard most weeks, cementing its key role in investor psychology,” Sosnick said. “Looking beyond that, it is quite clear that the company plays a crucial role affecting a wide range of other popular investment vehicles.”