‘October theory’ explains why fall is a better time for hitting your goals than New Year’s

As the ball drops on New Year’s Eve, many people hope they can stick to their resolutions for the next 12 months.

For those who struggle to meet their yearly goals, the issue might just be timing.

According to “October theory,” a concept that originated on TikTok in 2023 and recently went viral, people feel more motivated to set and pursue goals because they realize the year is almost over. Psychologists who spoke to B-17 said there’s some truth to it.

Patricia Dixon, a licensed clinical psychologist, said she always sees an uptick in therapy clients around October, as therapy can coincide with them wanting to make big changes. “When the pumpkin spice comes out, we know that we are going to get extra busy,” she said of her practice.

Even before she heard of the October theory, Kiki Ramsey, an executive coach and positive psychologist, told B-17 that she used to meet with her business-owner friends every October as a mini-retreat. They would reflect on their year so far and help each other set 90-day goals to finish it out strong.

Shorter deadlines can be motivational

Gyms tend to fill up in January when everyone gets started on their resolutions. Soon after, they empty as some people lose their motivation to exercise.

Part of that has to do with the daunting idea of keeping up a new habit for a whole year. Starting in October instead, with three months left in the year, can feel more manageable.

“Even if you haven’t been able to get your big to-do item on your list, you can get something done and still leave the year feeling accomplished,” Ramsey said.

She said reframing the remaining three months as a 90-day goal gives you enough time to reset and kick off a new habit without overthinking it.

Fall is a more reflective time

If you live in a place with noticeable seasons, witnessing the temperature dropping and the leaves changing color can inspire internal change, according to Ramsey. Plus, with the cool weather and approaching holidays, people might feel more optimistic and ready to set career goals in October than on New Year’s in the dead of winter.

The holidays can also inspire more reflection. In Dixon’s practice, “it brings on a lot of feelings of people being nostalgic,” whether clients are reflecting on their childhood or a difficult time in their lives. Often, it can prompt them to think about making big changes.

It’s a perfect time to get started

To make the most of this time, Dixon suggested de-emphasizing the end-of-year deadline and using it more as a guideline. “Now’s the time to get started, and where you land is where you land,” she said.

She also encouraged celebrating any progress so far as to motivate yourself to move forward.

To feel extra energized, Ramsey recommended turning your goal-planning session into a social event where you can share your dreams with friends and get feedback on your progress.

“This is your opportunity to step into a new phase of life, filled with that fresh energy, a sense of starting anew,” Ramsey said. “Make it fun.”