Pac-12 picks ATS: Oregon and USC cover while UCLA and Washington struggle

How have UW and Oregon fared the week after playing each other? We did the research.

The Pac-12’s game of the year has come and gone. What is the next step for Washington and Oregon?

This week, both teams are heavy favorites at home, with Washington hosting Arizona State and Oregon hosting Washington State.

Will they carry out their plans as planned? Is it possible that the Huskies and Ducks will spend the weekend in Letdown City after their exhausting game a few days ago?

For context, the Hotline looked at how the bitter rivals have historically fared in the game immediately following their annual showdown.

We examined two decades’ worth of point spreads and final scores and discovered the following:

— Oregon is 15-4 straight up after defeating Washington.

— Washington is 4-15 after losing to Oregon.

The disparity in success makes sense. For many of those 19 seasons — the teams didn’t play each other in 2020 — the Ducks were a powerhouse, while the Huskies were mediocre at best.

As a result, we also looked at how the teams fared against the point spread, because oddsmakers consider each team’s quality when setting weekly lines.

Oregon has also outperformed UW in this regard.

— After playing Washington, the Ducks are 10-8-1 against the spread.

— After facing Oregon, the Huskies are 6-13 against the spread.

UW’s recent post-Oregon history includes a 2021 meeting with this week’s opponent, Arizona State. In 2021, the Huskies were six-point underdogs at home against ASU and covered the spread in a 35-30 loss.

Meanwhile, the Ducks have faced Washington State three times in the last five years immediately after facing Washington. Oregon pushed in 2021 after failing to cover the spread against WSU in both 2018-19 seasons.

This season, Oregon is 5-0-1 against the spread, while Washington is 3-2-1.

To the choices…

Last week: 3-2-1 Season: 23-22-1 Five-star special: 5-2

All picks against the spread Lines taken from BetMGM (via VegasInsider.com)

(All times Pacific)

Arizona, California, Colorado, and Oregon State are all idle.

Oregon vs. Washington State 12:30 p.m. kickoff on ABC Line: Oregon -20 (total: 62.5) Comment: The Ducks have won four straight games in the series, including a three-point thriller in Pullman last year. This appeared to be a high-level matchup until WSU lost its previous two games, to UCLA and Arizona, and looked terrible in both. The offense has stalled, and quarterback Cam Ward is in a funk. The Cougars have little chance against Oregon’s balanced attack and talent at the line of scrimmage unless they rediscover their September mojo. Ward will be on the move all afternoon, with the Cougars trailing… far behind. Pick: Oregon

Utah at USC Kickoff: 5 p.m. on FOX Line: USC -7 (total: 56) Comment: This is the final scheduled meeting between the former South Division rivals. The Utes dominated USC twice last season, but the dynamic on Utah’s side has shifted due to the prolonged absence of injured quarterback Cam Rising. The Trojans are essentially the same team from last year, with a potent offense and a stifling defense. Are the Utes ready to capitalize, control the clock, and wear down USC’s front seven? We’re skeptical that they’ll be able to score frequently enough to keep up with USC quarterback Caleb Williams in the second half. Pick: USC

UCLA at Stanford Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN Line: UCLA -17 (total: 53.5) Comment: The Bruins have struggled on the road, losing to Utah and Oregon State, both of which featured erratic performances from freshman quarterback Dante Moore (43% completion, four interceptions). Stanford’s defense isn’t as strong as those in Salt Lake City and Corvallis, to be sure. However, the Cardinal have a few disruptors and, more importantly, found a quarterback and momentum during their historic 29-point comeback against Colorado last week. UCLA should win, but it feels like a few points are too many. Pick: Stanford

Arizona State at Washington Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on FS1 Line: Washington -26.5 (total: 58.5) Comment: It’s easy to imagine the Huskies starting slowly and Arizona State pulling some tricks with only two weeks to prepare. UW should eventually find its rhythm and take control, but that shift may come too late to cover what is effectively a four-touchdown betting line. Notable: ASU has won 13 of the last 15 meetings, with a few victories coming as a significant underdog, such as last season, when the Sun Devils won outright as a 13-point underdog. Pick: Arizona State

Straight-up winners: Oregon, USC, UCLA and Washington

Stanford is a five-star institution. In what should be a low-scoring game, 17 points feels like 20. That’s a little too much for us.