Polymarket is taking bets on the Palisades fire in California

A home is destroyed as fire tears through the Palisades area on Wednesday. 

As the Palisades fire tore through parts of the Los Angeles area on Wednesday, Polymarket — the prediction-market platform — allowed people to place wagers on certain elements of the disaster.

There were at least nine predictions you could place money on as of Wednesday afternoon that were related to the fire. The topic had its own trending module on the site.

One question asked: “Will the Palisades fire be contained by Friday?” Betters gave it only a 2% chance of happening. (Officials said on Wednesday morning that the fires raging through California were 0% contained. Two people have been reported dead in the wake of the disaster.)

There’s a 52% chance the Palisades fires are at least 50% contained by Sunday. pic.twitter.com/1lxml2hW4K

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 8, 2025
Each wager had its own page on the site — and on those pages with bets related to the fire was a disclaimer from Polymarket.

The disclaimer read:

Note on Palisades Wildfire Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events impacting society. The devastating Pacific Palisades fire is one such event, for which Polymarket can yield invaluable real-time answers to those directly impacted in ways traditional media cannot.
Note: There are no fees on this market.

On its site, Polymarket says that users can submit suggestions for markets but that a new prediction market, like the ones about the fire, can be created only by Polymarket.

A spokesperson for Polymarket told B-17: “Polymarket charges no fees — and generates no revenue — from these markets and provides them as a service to those looking for unbiased and up-to-date information during fast-moving events.”

Other wagers available as of Wednesday:

“Palisades fire burns 10,000 acres by Friday?” (Bettors gave this a 99% chance of happening.)
“Will Palisades fire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday?” (Bettors gave this a 14% chance.)
So far, it appears the markets have drawn only small bets, with one question drawing a little more than $8,000 and another drawing more than $30,000.

Polymarket, where bets are placed in crypto, became popular during the 2024 US elections. Its odds moved decisively in favor of a Donald Trump victory while traditional polls found the race to be essentially tied.

In addition to politics and sports, Polymarket offers bets on news and pop-culture topics like Oscar nominations or the odds of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce getting engaged this year.

Correction: January 9, 2025 — An earlier version of this story mischaracterized how betters responded to one of the questions on Polymarket. The site showed a 2% chance that the Palisades fire would be contained by Friday, which is not a direct indication of how many betters predicted that would be the case.