Republicans could be overlooking a potentially devastating problem with JD Vance

When JD Vance won the Ohio Senate race in 2022, he trailed other statewide Republicans by significant margins

After former President Donald Trump tapped Sen. JD Vance as his running mate on Monday, all eyes turned to the 39-year-old Ohio Republican who was elected to office less than two years ago.

In 2022, Vance was mostly known for his best-selling memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy.” But after Trump backed him in the GOP primary that year, the first-time candidate surged in the contest and went on to face then-Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in the general election.

Many Republicans saw Vance as a candidate who would be able to easily connect with the blue-collar workers who generally decide election results in Ohio, the onetime quintessential Midwestern battleground that in recent years has taken on a redder tint.

But the race between Vance and Ryan remained extremely competitive until the end, even as other statewide Republicans had easy victories that year.

That race may be a distant memory to some Republicans, but it shows that Vance’s candidacy presents some notable risks for the party as it looks to retake the White House this fall.

The mantle of populism

In 2022, Ryan, who hails from the blue-collar Mahoning Valley, ran an aggressive campaign in which he hammered Republicans over the economy and sought to claim dominance over Vance on the issue.

Ryan’s focus was centered squarely on Ohio. He eschewed national Democrats, preferring to campaign alongside his fellow Ohioan Sen. Sherrod Brown instead of traveling the state with President Joe Biden. And he courted Republicans and conservative-leaning Independents, arguing that he wouldn’t be beholden to his party.

It was the sort of populist mantle that Vance, in many ways, was also looking to capture.

But Vance’s populism was largely tied to Trump’s “America First” policies, especially as they related to the economy and foreign policy. Trump handily won Ohio in both 2016 and 2020, but Vance in his Senate race struggled to break away from Ryan, despite Biden’s unpopularity in the Buckeye State and the state’s GOP lean.

While Vance won the race that November, the extent of his struggles was on full display on election night.

Vance defeated Ryan by 6 points.

But Republican Gov. Mike DeWine defeated his Democratic opponent, former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, by 25 points. And both Attorney General Dave Yost and Secretary of State Frank LaRose were reelected by roughly 20 points.

Ryan was undoubtedly a strong candidate, but Vance’s underperformance relative to other Ohio Republicans was quite stark. One might even argue that DeWine’s coattails helped carry Vance over the finish line as Ryan clearly won over many voters who also backed statewide Republican officeholders.

What does the result say about Vance’s broader appeal?

The suburban-rural divide

This fall, Republicans are hoping to make inroads with suburban voters despite their past aversion to Trump and the more socially conservative candidates who have embraced his views.

Trump is hoping that economic concerns will bring some Independents and Democratic-leaning swing voters to his side.

And Republicans believe Vance’s presence on the GOP ticket will make a difference in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — especially in exurban and rural areas — and boost the ex-president.

But in urban and suburban communities across Ohio, Vance was swamped by Ryan in the Senate race.

In the Cincinnati area, where Vance lives, Ryan won populous Hamilton County by nearly 16 points.

In Franklin County, anchored by Columbus, Ryan won by 32 points.

And in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland and its inner-ring suburbs, Ryan emerged victorious by nearly 36 points.

On several issues — including abortion rights and aid for Ukraine — Vance has taken positions that are well to the right of those held by many suburbanites.

Vance hailed the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade — a problematic position for many moderates — and he has praised Trump’s decision to leave the issue of abortion to the states.

The Ohio senator has also been a staunch opponent of providing aid to Ukraine, a position that has endeared him to Trumpworld but is a far departure from the position of GOP leaders such as Sens. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and John Thune of South Dakota.

While Vance is poised be a big asset to Trump in rural Rust Belt locales, the senator has so far not shown much strength in suburban areas, where Democrats are aiming to run up their margins.

Republicans aren’t going to give up on the suburbs this year. But Vance’s Senate underperformance in Ohio gives Democrats hope that they can stave off the GOP ticket as they look to November.