Russia is after more Iranian and North Korean missiles to help it tip the balance in Ukraine, experts say

Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Sergei Shoigu meet with Ali Akbar Ahmadian, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in Saint Petersburg in September 2024.

A close Putin ally visited Iran this week while on a tour of Russia’s authoritarian allies, as the Kremlin seemingly sought to secure more weapons to fuel its war in Ukraine.

According to Russian state media, Sergei Shoigu met with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday.

Pezeshkian reportedly said that his government would “work on the development of cooperation and will take measures to raise the level of cooperation between the two countries.”

The visit came just days after Shoigu traveled to North Korea for talks with leader Kim Jong Un, and after he met Monday with Syrian leader Bashar Assad.

In the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has strengthened its ties with some of its allies, with Iran and North Korea becoming important suppliers of ammunition and weapons for its grinding war of attrition.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said Tuesday that Russia is seeking “deepening engagement” with allies including North Korea, China, Syria, and Iran as part of a “wider Kremlin effort to establish a coalition of friendly states which can bolster Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) and secure strategic economic cooperation to support its war in Ukraine.”

On a visit to the UK last week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that Iran had sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use in its campaign in Ukraine.

This would mark an escalation in Iran’s support for Russia, with the Islamic Republic previously sending aerial drones used by Russia to attack Ukrainian towns and infrastructure.

In recent months, North Korea has reportedly sent millions of shells to Russia, as well as ballistic missiles.

Ukrainian spy chief Kyrylo Budanov warned on Saturday that Russia was getting a boost on the front line from extra ammunition and equipment supplied by its allies.

Russia is also recruiting Syrian mercenaries to fight, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

China is not believed to have provided weapons to Russia, but the US has accused it of supplying crucial “dual-use” goods for Russia’s armaments industry.

Military analysts say that Russia is seeking to crush Ukrainian resistance in a drawn-out war of attrition, counting on its larger armaments industry, supplies of weapons and ammunition, and sizable population.

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy said last week that the delivery of Iranian missiles to Russia had changed the debate about Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia.

In a White House meeting on Friday, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden discussed lifting the restrictions.

Russia is currently making incremental but important advances in its campaign to seize more territory in eastern Ukraine, while Ukraine has occupied parts of Russia’s Kursk province, after a surprise attack last month.