Russia is likely trying to exploit the conflict in the Middle East to expand its influence, war experts say

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Tehran, Iran, on September 30, 2024.

The Kremlin is likely trying to exploit the conflicts in the Middle East to expand its own influence, according to military experts.

The Institute for the Study of War made the assessment in an update on Wednesday, as tensions flare up in the region between Israel, Iran, and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militant group.

According to the ISW, the Kremlin is likely using the conflict to advance Russia-led security institutions and build its own security architecture.

It cited a slew of diplomatic statements and visits Russian officials had made with their Middle Eastern counterparts in recent days.

Israel launched ground incursions into Lebanon earlier this week after taking out Hezbollah’s longtime chief, Hassan Nasrallah, on September 27, as well as other top Hezbollah officials.

In response, Iran launched a massive missile barrage against Israel on Tuesday, firing close to 200 missiles, according to reports.

Israel is now weighing up how to respond, with security experts saying an Israeli retaliation could come within days.

Wall Street’s main indexes opened lower again on Thursday amid persistent worries that hostilities in the Middle East could escalate.

For Russia, the unrest presents an opportunity to play a larger role in the region.

During a meeting with the Lebanese Ambassador to Russia on Tuesday, Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, voiced “strong” condemnation of the Israel Defense Forces’ ground operation in southern Lebanon, and opposition to alleged Israeli political assassinations.

Related stories

US Navy warships fired interceptors at Iranian missiles targeting Israel

De-escalation in the Middle East is now up to Iran

Russia’s ambassador to Israel, Anatoly Viktorov, meanwhile, called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, and for finding a diplomatic way out of the current situation, per Russian news agency TASS.

It added that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had met with the heads of diplomatic missions of unspecified Arab countries and called for the immediate end of military operations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict zone.

The ISW said some of Russia’s efforts are to bring these countries into Russia’s security sphere.

It’s not alone in seeing Russia trying to play a larger role in the region.

In a March report, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy said that Russia was using its defense ties in the Middle East to compete with the West, and that President Vladimir Putin believes he is fighting an “existential battle” with the US in an arena where he believes Russia can shape this competition.

Alexander Libman, a professor of Russian and East European politics at the Free University of Berlin, said that Russia will try to use the situation to “strengthen its influence,” most likely to position itself as an impartial intermediary.

“Russia clearly benefits from the war in the Middle East, at least since it distracts global attention from Ukraine,” he added. “At the same time, besides rhetoric, I would not expect any more tangible activity besides pure rhetoric — Russia hardly has any resources for it.”

But for the West, he said, “the war in the Middle East means that it will be even more difficult to expand the coalition of countries supporting Ukraine or clearly condemning Russia.”

Mark N. Katz, a professor emeritus of government and politics at George Mason University, who writes about Russian foreign and security policy toward the Middle East, said he doesn’t believe Russia wants to or can extend security guarantees to Middle Eastern countries, as it already has its “hands full” with the Ukraine war.

Instead, he said, Russia is trying to “stay on good terms” with all the countries in the region, which he described as a “delicate balancing act.”

Russia “wants to appear relevant in the Middle East but not getting sucked in ongoing conflicts,” he said.

It’s not the first time Russia has been accused of trying to use conflicts in the Middle East to advance its security interests in the region.

Last week, Reuters reported that Russian officials had met with the Houthis in Tehran at least twice this year to negotiate the sale of anti-ship missiles, which the militant group could use to attack ships in the Red Sea.

Reuters based its reporting on Western and regional sources.

According to the Jamestown Foundation, a defense policy think tank, Russia is also trying to form a working coalition or bloc with Iran, Iraq, and Syria, by acting as a broker in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

It said it was trying, through these efforts, to regain major influence on Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean gas sales, especially liquefied natural gas.

Russia has also used its defense ties to some Middle Eastern countries to secure more weapons for its war in Ukraine, including Iranian short-range ballistic missiles and Shahed drones.