Russia is set to lose over 1,000 troops a day through the winter as it fights a war on three fronts: UK MOD

Russia is set to lose 1,000 men per day in the winter as it pushes hard to take territory in Kursk, Kharkiv, and eastern Ukraine, according to UK military intelligence. 

The UK Defense Ministry expects Russia to lose 1,000 or more troops per day in the coming winter, saying Moscow will likely keep trying to overwhelm Ukraine in the next months despite difficult conditions.

“Russia’s casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day for the rest of 2024 despite the onset of winter,” the ministry said in an update posted on Monday, referring to soldiers who are wounded or killed in battle.

“To date, winter conditions have not resulted in a reduction of offensive operations or attrition rates due to Russia’s reliance on dismounted tactics and a lack of maneuver warfare, which requires better conditions,” it added.

The ministry has for several months flagged that Russia is suffering a far higher casualty rate compared to previous years as it relies on mass to grind its way to victory in Ukraine.

The New York Times reported in June that Western intelligence agencies estimated Russian daily losses to have averaged 1,000 wounded or killed troops in May.

Ukraine had also reported that May was one of Russia’s worst months, saying the Kremlin suffered over 1,200 casualties per day.

In a separate note on its Monday update, the UK defense ministry cited this data and said Ukrainian forces now estimate that Russian losses in September were even higher, at 1,271 killed or wounded per day.

“Since the start of the conflict Russia has likely suffered over 648,000 casualties,” the ministry wrote.

Officials posted a chart of Russia’s monthly daily average losses since the war began, indicating a progressive increase year on year.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 07 October 2024.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence’s use of language: https://t.co/mliOqaN57n #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/JlOer1ae9E

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) October 7, 2024
They wrote that the sharp jump in losses is likely due to Russia and Ukraine opening new fronts in Kharkiv and Kursk, along with intensified fighting on the eastern front, where Russia has been pushing hard to take the key towns of Pokrovsk and Vuhledar in Donetsk.

“Russian forces highly likely continue to attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces by utilizing mass to overwhelm defensive positions and achieve tactical gains,” the ministry added.

Russian troops took Vuhledar in early October after two years of fighting. Some of the war’s bloodiest clashes unfolded at the Ukrainian stronghold, including a failed assault by elite Russian marines who were nearly wiped out and an ill-fated tank column rush that ended with Moscow losing over 130 armored vehicles.

An aerial view of the battered Vuhledar in December. 

But Russian troops managed to seize nearby towns and surround Vuhledar in June, in a sign of heightened pressure against the Ukrainian forces this year as Russian leader Vladimir Putin focuses his country’s economy on the war.

The Kremlin has been aggressively recruiting fresh troops to offset its losses and, in some areas, paying top dollar in sign-on bonuses that rival the US military.

Draft documents reported by Russian media in September indicate that authorities plan to spend up to 40% of the nation’s overall budget on its military and national security.

It’s unclear how long Russia can sustain that effort. Still, some economists say such war spending is the only thing keeping the country from a recession, as it becomes increasingly isolated from the world economy and suffers a brain drain.

Russia’s defense ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent outside regular business hours by B-17.