Russia may have lost a rare drone over Ukraine — and it could be an intelligence win for the West

Russia’s S-70 drone is seen taking off at an unidentified location in August 2019.

An aircraft believed to be a new heavy Russian combat drone crashed in Ukraine over the weekend. Losing one would not only be a major blow for Moscow; it could be a significant intelligence win for Kyiv and its NATO partners, including the US.

Russia hasn’t built very many of the S-70 Okhotnik-B (Hunter) drones, which made their combat debut during the ongoing Ukraine war.

Video footage circulated across social media on Saturday showing the suspected S-70 plummeting out of the sky while leaving a trail of smoke in its wake, an indication that the aircraft had suffered damage of some kind. Photos later showed the aircraft’s wreckage on the ground.

The wreckage of the Russian aircraft was discovered in Kostyantynivka, a city in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region just a few miles behind the front lines. It’s unclear what type of mission the drone was on when it crashed.

Ukrainian service members inspect parts of a Russian S-70 drone in eastern Ukraine on October 5.

The exact cause of the crash is unknown, but there’s been speculation about what might have happened. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has commented publicly on the incident.

Conflict analysts at the Institute for the Study of War think tank said that some Russian sources have claimed that Moscow accidentally shot down the S-70 in a friendly-fire incident. Open-source intelligence accounts on social media amplified this theory, asserting that the drone was shot down by one of Russia’s few Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets.

As to whether the downing of the aircraft was an accident or intentional, other Russian sources have suggested that the drone operators lost control of the aircraft and shot it down on purpose to prevent Ukraine from gaining access to the system’s advanced technology, the analysts wrote in a Sunday assessment.

B-17 is unable to immediately verify any of the theories, but Ukraine, based on photos taken at the crash site, has access to the wreckage.

Russia’s S-70 drone is seen taking off at an unidentified location in August 2019.

Samuel Bendett, an advisor with the Center for Naval Analyses and an expert on drones and Russian defense issues, said that the apparent loss of the S-70 a “significant win” for Western intelligence given that it has been Moscow’s flagship drone project for more than a decade.

Photos captured at the crash site show Ukrainian troops already examining the suspected S-70 wreckage, a scenario Russia — or any military — would probably prefer to avoid with new and sensitive technology.

“Presumably it has top resources and investments, materials and products, including microelectronics and other key components,” Bendett told B-17.

Bendett said that NATO countries, which are ahead of Russia in unmanned combat aerial vehicle development, are likely working on their own designs. Getting ahold of this aircraft could provide insight into its workings, as well as its weaknesses and how best to counter it. Additionally, because there aren’t many S-70s, losing one could set Moscow’s program back, although it “will not stop its ongoing experimentation with such designs,” he said.

Ukrainian scene investigators examine the suspected S-70 wreckage in eastern Ukraine on October 5.

The S-70 “Hunter,” which looks similar in shape to the US military’s RQ-170 Sentinel built by Lockheed Martin, has been under development since the early 2010s and took its first flight in 2019. Only two of the jet-powered drones — which weigh some 20 tons and have a 65-foot-long wingspan — are thought to have been built.

Both Ukraine and Russia have relied heavily on drones to wage war, although they have primarily employed mass-produced, cheap drones instead of heavier and more expensive systems.

Bendett said that Ukraine and Russia are fielding drones with impressive ranges that can cause extensive damage and issues for air defenses as the S-70 was intended for, but some other drones can perform these tasks at a fraction of the price.

This poses a dilemma for Moscow, Bendett said. Should it continue developing the S-70, even though the few it has would be at great risk, or spend more resources on long-range attack drones that are much cheaper? The answer remains to be seen.