Russia’s new Iranian missiles could make the front lines in Ukraine far more dangerous
A missile launched in Iran in a picture received by Reuters in August 2020. The missile type is part of Iran’s growing missile arsenal.
With Iranian ballistic missiles, Russia has a flexiblity that could be a big problem for Ukraine. It can hammer front-line positions with cheap Iranian weapons while reserving its more expensive weapons for other targets at depth.
From a cost-benefit perspective, low-value Ukrainian targets on the front lines aren’t ideal for expensive, sophisticated precision-guided missiles, stockpiles that are consistently strained as is.
The delivery of cheaper Iranian missiles creates new options. “Russia’s focus is probably going to be on using those to do sort of the short tactical battlefield targets,” Timothy Wright, a missile technology expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told BI.
New missiles
Two European defense officials told Reuters in August that they expected Iran to deliver hundreds of Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, as well as some Ababil close-range ballistic missiles. The Pentagon confirmed the Fath-360 delivery in September.
Fath-360s, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said, are believed to have a range of about 75 miles. Ababils have a range of around 53 miles, according to the IISS.
It is not clear if Russia has used either system yet. Reuters reported in September that Iran did not include launchers for the Fath-360 missiles in the deliveries, so it may not have the capacity to fire them yet.
But presumably they intend to use them. Wright said that Russia’s plan is probably to “get the Iranian stuff on board so they can go after stuff within the immediate periphery of the front lines.”
Fabian Hofffman, a doctoral research fellow with the Oslo Nuclear Project, told B-17 “Iranian missiles, by lack of their own range, are restricted to front-line targets for sure.” He said the Iranian missiles “allow Russia to put even more pressure on front-line targets.”
Freeing up Russian missiles
Ryder, the Pentagon spokesman, said in September that the Iranian missiles “would enable Russia to employ this capability while preserving its longer-range capabilities for use throughout the battlefield, thus deepening Russia’s arsenal.” Russia could focus on striking the targets it’s already been striking, like civilian targets, he said.
Other targets for Russian missiles could be high-value Ukrainian systems in the rear. It isn’t clear exactly to what extent Iran’s ballistic missiles will free up other Russian precision munitions for other targets, but Hoffman said it is clear that “the overall volume is going to increase.” That gives Russia options.
A Russian Iskander missile launcher.
Fabian Hinz, an IISS missile expert, argued in a September analysis that using shorter-range Iranian missiles could free up Russia’s Iskander missiles, which have a longer range, “for additional attacks against targets in Ukraine’s depth.” He said that “while these Iranian missiles may not introduce a new capability to Russia’s war effort, they will offer increased flexibility and, most importantly, additional quantity.”
Russia-Iran ties
Russia has significantly deepened its relationship with Iran since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, as well as North Korea, from which Russia has also received tactical missiles. These new missile purchases from Iran are a continuation of that trend, helping Russia get additional weaponry and letting Iran aid a country that opposes the West.
Hinz also wrote in his analysis that Russia’s missile purchase highlights its “continued inability to produce adequate quantities of comparable domestic systems.” That’s where North Korea and Iran come in.
He pointed to Russia’s purchase of North Korean KN-23 missiles, which he said did not offer abilities beyond what its own Iskander missiles can do “but add additional mass to the battlefield.”
The full picture of Russia’s defense manufacturing capabilities is unclear, but many Western experts and intelligence agencies have, at times, pointed to Russia’s inability to make enough missiles and other ammunition to meet its needs.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Iran’s Fath 360 missiles do not appear remarkably accurate, but Russia having more weaponry deepens the threat to Ukraine. It also fits with Russia’s tactic of using overwhelming numbers of poorer-quality equipment and poorly trained soldiers to try to wear the Ukrainians down.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has urged allies to give it more missiles and air defense systems so it can hit Russian targets and shield its critical systems and infrastructure. Wright said that Ukraine’s international partners have given it “fairly small numbers” of missiles.
But the re-election of former President Donald Trump puts the amount of help it can get from the West going forward into question, as Trump, while he has not announced any concrete plans, frequently criticizes US aid to Ukraine, arguing simply that he wants to end the war.
