Stanford and Cal still in limbo: Five thoughts as they desperately seek ACC or Big Ten invites

The schools need one ACC school to change its vote

Two weeks after the Pac-12 disbanded, its illustrious academic institutions, Stanford and Cal, are still stranded in the merciless realignment game.

Lifeboats can be seen in the distance, but the current is whipping up against the schools. While their former residence has been abandoned by its most powerful tenants, it remains a viable option for shelter. But time is running out.

Here are five thoughts on the current situation and the uncertain future of Bay Area schools:

— Stanford and California are crucial to the Pac-12’s survival.

If their desperate bids to join the ACC or Big Ten fail and life as an Independent (along with Notre Dame) is deemed too risky, the Cardinal and Bears could band together with Washington State and Oregon State to rebuild the 108-year-old conference.

It’s a bad option, but it might be the only one available.

Securing a media rights contract and adding members through expansion are complex maneuvers in a Pac-12 renovation project. Both must be resolved before the conference’s eight current schools officially exit the conference and the next era begins next summer.

The Cardinals and Bears have not set a firm deadline for a decision. The longer the process takes, however, the more frantic the Pac-12 rebuild becomes.

“There’s time, but there isn’t time,” an industry source said.

While Stanford and Cal investigate every possibility, WSU and OSU are forced to wait. This week could bring clarity.

Or perhaps not.

— The ACC bylaws require 12 votes (out of 15) to approve new members. According to reports, four schools were against expansion as of last week: Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and N.C. State. This could be a difficult stumbling block.

Their opposition is based on a lack of cold, hard cash. There is no reason to switch votes if adding Stanford and Cal does not increase revenue and help the schools close the financial gap with the SEC and Big Ten.

This appears to imply that any expansion must be funded by the ACC’s broadcast partner, ESPN.

But are the Bay Area schools a good investment for the network? Everything depends on the outcome.

— The ACC lifeboat is equipped with a trap.

If they accept the invitations and join, the Bay Area schools will be obligated to the ACC for their media revenue until 2036, when the conference’s current contract with ESPN expires. The lengthy grant-of-rights agreement has kept the conference together during the realignment chaos. (Any departing school would be obligated to pay hundreds of millions of dollars.)

That is an unusually long time for Cal and Stanford to commit to membership in a league 3,000 miles away with so many unknown and unknown challenges for the athletes.

Furthermore, any agreement that binds them to the ACC until 2036 may limit their options during the next realignment wave. If the Big Ten decides to expand later this decade, for example, the Bay Area schools will be unavailable.

— In the theater of the absurd that is college sports, membership in a conference based in Rosemont, Ill., walking distance from O’Hare Airport, would be the best outcome for Stanford and Cal.

Why? Because USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington will be joining the Big Ten next summer, the Bay Area schools will have a slew of regional scheduling opportunities with their longtime Pac-12 counterparts, reducing the athletes’ cross-country travel demands.

Even if they had to accept significantly reduced revenue shares, the Cardinals and Bears would be better off in the Big Ten than in the ACC.

However, Fox is in charge of the Big Ten and oversees all expansion decisions. It currently does not see the value in adding Stanford and Cal.

In our opinion, the best chance for Bay Area schools to pique Fox’s interest is to secure invitations from the ACC and its media overlord, ESPN.

Fox has gone to great lengths to keep ESPN out of West Coast college football, first with USC and UCLA, then with Oregon and Washington.

Perhaps the threat of ESPN gaining a foothold in the Bay Area, combined with the ACC’s East Coast inventory, would prompt Fox to raise the funds required to secure Cal and Stanford for the Big Ten.

— In the race to find new housing, Stanford is out in front, with Cal trailing behind.

The Cardinal has a stronger brand and more powerful allies than its cross-Bay rival. (According to sources, Condoleezza Rice is working on its behalf.) It also has a stronger financial position and is better positioned to fund a football investment that would satisfy the Big Ten and ACC.

Cal’s long-held industry perception — that it lacks the resources to compete at a high level and suffers from administrative apathy — has weakened its negotiating leverage at this critical juncture.

“Cal is in a worse position,” according to a source.

Are the schools all-inclusive? Could Stanford possibly overtake its neighbor?

It would be illogical for the ACC or Big Ten to accept one school from the Bay Area but not the other, as they would make ideal travel partners and would allow those leagues to maintain an even number of teams.

Except for the cents, nothing about realignment makes sense.