Stocks tied to Russia rally as Trump’s win fuels hopes for an end to the Ukraine war

A destroyed border checkpoint with the sign “Ukraine” and “Russia” on August 16, 2024 in Sudzha, Russia.

Stocks tied to Russia have risen since Donald Trump won the US presidential election as investors hope that he follows through on campaign rhetoric on bringing an end to the war in Ukraine.

Raiffeisen Bank International, an Austrian bank, has seen its stock surge 12.2% to a seven-month high since the market closed on Tuesday. Hungary-based OTP Bank soared 4.9% in that time. Both banks have operations in Russia. Turkey-based construction firm Enka Insaat, meanwhile, is up 8.6% since Tuesday.

Shares of companies with ties to Russia plunged following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as investors fled the country over fears that sanctions would hobble the economy and hurt firms doing business there.

After the invasion, the US and Europe employed widespread sanctions to cut off the Kremlin’s war revenue. The moves forced many companies to exit the country and made doing business difficult for those that remained.

The debt market has also responded to Trump’s win, with Ukraine’s dollar-denominated bonds rallying since the election. On Wednesday, bonds tied to Ukraine’s GDP soared to their highest level since before the war began.

Investors are hoping that Trump will follow through on pledges made during his campaign to help end the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for nearly three years.

During his debate against Vice President Kamala Harris in September, Trump promised to settle the war even before becoming president and said he would speak to both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin to work out a deal. In July, he said he could end the conflict in less than a day.

Recent reports say Trump’s advisors have set out plans to end the war with approaches like a demilitarized zone between the two countries.

Analysts, though, have voiced concerns that Putin has more to gain from prolonging the war than ending it, posing a challenge to any dealmaking efforts by Trump.

In a post on X, Zelenskyy congratulated the president-elect and appeared hopeful his term could change the war’s trajectory.

“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer,” Zelenskyy wrote.