Tesla Q3 deliveries preview: Wall Street expects a beat as Musk & Co. get their ‘mojo’ back

Tesla CEO Elon Musk

Tesla’s upcoming third-quarter vehicle-deliveries report should impress investors, according to Wall Street experts.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Wedbush all expect Tesla to deliver a beat when it reports deliveries, which are expected to be announced Wednesday morning.

Tesla stock has been on a wild ride this year. At its lowest point in the first four months of 2024, it declined 43%, but it has since surged 82% and is up 4% year to date.

Investors will be laser-focused on Tesla’s two upcoming catalysts: its third-quarter delivery report later this week and its robo-taxi event on October 10.

Barclays: ‘Concerns on fundamentals have dissipated’

Dan Levy, a Barclays analyst, expects Tesla to report solid vehicle deliveries later this week, according to a recent note.

Levy said that thanks to expected strength in Tesla’s China business, the company would announce third-quarter vehicle deliveries of 470,000, ahead of Wall Street estimates.

“Given the positive data points reported thus far in the quarter, particularly in China, we believe Tesla’s sales trajectory is well understood and investors are expecting a stronger result,” Levy said.

All in, the delivery report should be a boost for Tesla stock, Levy said, as he expects the stock to rise heading into its robo-taxi day.

“We believe that a beat could drive further strength of the stock into Robotaxi Day, serving as a reminder that at least for now concerns on fundamentals have dissipated,” Levy said.

Levy rated Tesla at “equal weight,” with a $220 price target.

Goldman Sachs: 3rd-party data shows mixed trends

In a recent note, Mark Delaney, a Goldman Sachs analyst, lowered his third-quarter delivery target to 460,000 vehicles.

Delaney noted his estimate was slightly ahead of Visible Alpha consensus data of 457,000 vehicles.

He had previously expected Tesla to deliver 475,000 vehicles in the quarter but lowered that because of mixed trends from various regions, citing registration, insurance, and third-party data.

“Regionally we believe that sales have been strong in China, flattish in the US, and weak in Europe on a you basis,” Delaney said.

Delaney rated Tesla at “neutral,” with a $230 price target.

Wedbush: ‘a major step in the right direction’

Dan Ives, a Wedbush analyst, said in a recent note that the “mojo is back at Tesla” as the company showed signs of rebounding from a slowdown in vehicle sales earlier this year.

Ives saw positive signs in demand from China and a lack of price cuts in recent weeks.

“We believe 3Q will provide a solid rebound looking to 2H for the company as China continues to heat up and price/demand stabilization has continuously been seen throughout the quarter. We believe this quarter is a major step in the right direction for the Tesla story,” Ives said.

He expects Tesla to beat consensus estimates of 462,000 vehicles delivered in the quarter and said “whisper numbers” were between 465,000 and 470,00 vehicles.

For the full year, Ives expressed confidence that Tesla could hit 1.8 million deliveries, which would match last year’s numbers.

Ives rated Tesla at “outperform,” with a $300 price target.