The Fed will only cut rates once this year because the US economy is too strong, market vet says

Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States Jerome Powell speaks during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress at the U.S. Capitol on July 9, 2024 in Washington, DC. Powell in earlier remarks was quoted, “we want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy.”

Investors expecting steep rate cuts as inflation keeps cooling this summer could be disappointed as the US economy looks too strong to justify heavy policy easing from the Fed.

That’s according to Ed Yardeni, the president of Yardeni Research and a longtime Wall Street veteran who’s calling for just one rate cut from the central bank this year. His prediction is contrary to what most investors are expecting, with markets laying bets for 100-125 basis points of cuts by year-end, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

“I’ve been opposed to a rate cut, but I’m a reasonable person. If the Fed signals that they’re going to cut no matter what I think, that’s what’s going to happen, but I think it’s a quarter-point and it’s a one-and-done for the year,” he told CNBC in an interview on Wednesday.

Markets began ramping up their expectations for Fed rate cuts after taking in a surprisingly weak jobs report in July, where unemployment to its highest level since the pandemic. Recession fears then spiked, causing a brutal sell-off in stocks.

Yet in general, the US economy looks to be on solid footing, making steep rate cuts unnecessary, Yardeni said.

Next month’s job report is bound to be stronger, Yardeni predicted, echoing other commentators who have said July’s data may have been distorted by severe weather events.

Meanwhile, inflation is on track to fall back to the Fed’s 2% target by the end of the year, Yardeni said. Consumer prices continued to cool last month to 2.9%, below the expected 3% yearly increase.

Finally, GDP growth is positive and appears to be re-accelerating after dropping in the first quarter. The economy expanded by 2.8% last quarter, according to advanced GDP estimates from the Commerce Department.

Still, the outlook for a recession remains mixed on Wall Street, with some forecasters making the case that markets haven’t seen the full impact of higher interest rates yet. The New York Fed sees a 56% chance the economy could enter a downturn by July of next year.