Trump is taking his message to the heart of some of the bluest cities in the US. Here’s why.
Former President Donald Trump is no stranger to Manhattan, where, for decades, he was a fixture in the business world.
Throughout the 2024 presidential campaign, former President Donald Trump has spent time firming up GOP base voters in rural and exurban areas, where his support remains the strongest.
He has also spent a significant amount of time holding rallies in staunchly Democratic cities like Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia.
And on Sunday, he’s set to headline a rally at Madison Square Garden, bringing his conservative campaign to Manhattan, where Democrats dominate the GOP in races up and down the ballot.
Trump sees value in this strategy as he’s polled more strongly with minority voters over the past year compared to 2020. And with Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris deadlocked in the presidential race, every vote will matter.
The economic argument
According to polling, most voters are concerned about the state of the economy, which is Trump’s strongest issue. He has sought to use this issue to cut into Harris’ support among the very groups she’ll need to win the presidency.
This includes Black voters, who for decades have overwhelmingly backed Democratic politicians, and Latino voters, who have become less Democratic as a whole in recent years. Among both groups, there’s been notable migration among young male voters toward Trump.
A recent GenForward survey showed that 26% of young Black men backed Trump, compared to 58% who supported Harris. Among young Latino men, 44% of respondents backed Trump, and 37% supported Harris. (Overall, Black men in 2020 voted for Biden 79% to 19%, and Latino men that year backed Biden 59% to 36%, exit polls found.)
Trump is aiming to cut into Democratic margins in cities like Philadelphia.
Trump has long tied issues like immigration to the economy, and he’s stepped up that argument this year. During a June debate with President Joe Biden, Trump said migrants were taking “Black jobs” and “Hispanic jobs.” The former president has also pummeled both Biden and Harris over inflation, arguing that the economic picture under his administration was far better for minorities.
Black unemployment under both Biden and Trump hit lows that had not been seen in decades. And the former president is using the issue as a catalyst that could bring more minorities into the GOP fold.
Trump has leaned into his nontraditional political persona as he seeks to chip off Black, Latino, and Asian support from Democrats. In May, he generated the sort of buzz that’d be unheard of for virtually any other Republican as he held a rally in the Bronx. And despite Harris’ near-certain probability of winning New York, the optics of having a rally at Madison Square Garden in a blue citadel just days before the election only adds to Trump’s narrative.
Swing-state voting shifts
In swing states like Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Republicans no longer dominate suburban communities as they did in the 1980s, 1990s, and throughout much of the 2000s.
In 2020, Biden performed strongly in inner-ring suburbs outside Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia, respectively, while also winning by landslides in the actual city centers. Such margins allowed Biden to overcome Trump’s advantage in most rural counties in each state.
These populous metropolitan areas contain a significant share of the vote needed to win statewide, and with Republicans continuing to falter with suburban voters in the Trump era, the former president will need to make up the votes elsewhere.
In 2020, Biden won 66% of urban voters, compared to Trump’s 33% support, according to the Pew Research Center. Among suburban voters, Biden had a 54% to 43% advantage over Trump.
Trump’s focus on urban rallies gives the GOP added visibility in areas where they generally haven’t even bothered to show up.
However, it also reflects the potential long-term shifts in voting patterns that could occur in the 2024 election. If Trump grows his support among minority males, then Republicans will hail his strategy. Still, it may not be enough to defeat Harris, as the presidential race remains as close as ever.
