Trump’s victory has already prompted a realignment on Ukraine
Servicemen of the 24th Mechanised Brigade in Ukraine’s Donetsk region in November 2024.
President-elect Donald Trump’s election win has prompted a flurry of reactions around the world that are already reshaping the war in Ukraine.
Trump, a frequent critic of US aid to Ukraine, won’t take over the White House until January 20, 2025. But his imminent return has sparked a rush of aid to Ukraine, a greater emphasis on finding ways to end the war quickly, and new conversations between countries most engaged in the conflict.
President Joe Biden, a strong supporter of Ukraine, has sought to rush additional aid to Ukraine before Trump takes office. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that Biden “has committed to making sure that every dollar we have at our disposal will be pushed out the door” before that date in January.
As B-17 previously reported, over $6 billion in US assistance to Ukraine remains from April’s foreign aid package.
Meanwhile, over the weekend Biden gave Ukraine permission to use the long-range missiles it’s supplied to strike inside Russia, according to multiple reports.
That restriction has been a major hindrance to Ukraine, warfare experts said, preventing it from going after the source of Russian attacks and leaving it instead to have to try to stop each attack as it comes in.
A US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) firing a missile.
The new ability to strike targets inside Russia should boost Ukraine’s battlefield effectiveness, but the long wait gave Russia plenty of time to prepare and to move its aircraft out of potential range.
Meanwhile, world leaders have reacted to Trump’s imminent return to office by renewing efforts to end the fighting, in ways that have been resisted in the past.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan, who has positioned himself as a power player in the conflict, will present a plan to freeze the war when meeting G20 leaders in Brazil on Monday, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
Erdoğan’s plan involves Ukraine agreeing not to discuss joining NATO for 10 years, the sources said.
Two European officials also told Bloomberg that there is increasing recognition in Europe that Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy will have to compromise with Russian President Vladimir Putin, because neither country has shown that it can comprehensively win on the battlefield.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had a call with Putin on November 15, in what Reuters described as their first direct communication in almost two years.
A German government spokesperson said Scholz “urged Russia to be prepared to negotiate with Ukraine with the aim of achieving a just and lasting peace,” Politico reported.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
According to the Associated Press, Putin said that any peace deal must acknowledge the territory Russia has taken and Russian demands, like Ukraine not joining NATO.
Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Friday that this kind of communication is “exactly what Putin has wanted for a long time.”
He said Putin wants to “weaken his isolation” and said that “ordinary negotiations” would lead to nothing.
Zelenskyy has previously said that he is open to ending the war through diplomatic means but warned that Russia does not want to end the war on what he described as “any reasonable terms.”
Ukraine has repeatedly rejected the idea of giving up territory.
(Trump has previously suggested that he would try to strike a deal that would involve giving up some Ukrainian territory.)
Even so, Zelenskyy has spoken more frequently on the possibility of a deal, suggesting he’s under some pressure from Ukraine’s allies.
Zelenskyy told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne on Saturday that he believes Trump’s reelection as president will mean the conflict ends “faster.”
He also said that Ukraine must do everything it can to end the war through diplomatic means, but that he doesn’t believe Putin actually wants peace.
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in 2018.
Zelenskyy told Suspilne that for Ukraine to take part in negotiations, it must be able to remain “strong” and “not alone with Russia,” per the Kyiv Independent’s translation.
“I don’t think Putin wants peace at all” he added. “But this does not mean that he does not want to sit down with one of the leaders.”
Zelenskyy said this would destroy the political isolation that has built around Putin since the start of the war. “And it benefits him to sit down, talk, and not reach an agreement,” Zelenskyy said.
Despite all this movement, Trump has not signaled his own plan as yet, and there is uncertainty over what he will ultimately decide to do regarding Ukraine.
Many European nations have vowed to continue supporting Ukraine, though the job would be much tougher without the US’ contributions.
There is also some optimism in Ukraine, as well as among Ukraine’s European allies and warfare experts, that the changes Trump brings in could be in Ukraine’s interest, compared to the slow drip of aid that has happened under Biden.
But, as The Wall Street Journal reports, there are concerns that the Trump administration won’t give Ukraine much of a say in what a peace deal could look like, and which of Russia’s demands Trump might accept.
What is clear, however, is that Trump’s reelection is already having a strong impact on how countries are thinking about the war.
